Southwest Florida Weather Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay National Weather Service

000
FXUS62 KTBW 040127
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
827 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2012

.UPDATE...MID/UPPER LVL CLOUD DECKS STILL STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE 
AS PREVAILING SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AND 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN REGIONS...WITH CURRENT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST 
CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW 
SPRINKLES MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO 
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. 

WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT LIMITING RADIATIONAL COOLING...MINS 
WILL WARM UP A BIT WITH NATURE COAST COUNTIES REMAINING IN THE MID 
50S TO LOW 60S...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH WARMER 
TEMPS WON'T NECESSARILY PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG 
DEVELOPMENT...FORECAST WILL STILL CARRY PATCHY FOG...MAINLY AWAY 
FROM THE COAST AS DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 60.  

CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR 
THE EVENING UPDATE. 

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FROM 144 PM EST TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS RIDGING DOWN OVER THE 
AREA PROVIDING A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW. UPPER ENERGY IS ALLOWING 
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND 
WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE 
WEST ON SUNDAY. E/SE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES 
SE. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP GENERALLY 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT OVERNIGHT PATCHY 
FOG EACH NIGHT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS 
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER 
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 
FL130 WITH SOME LOWER CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS BETWEEN 
FL030-050 THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. EAST WINDS AT 7-10 KNOTS 
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER 14Z ON 
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS NOW NEARING EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA OFFSHORE...AND WILL 
LIKELY SURGE OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS BECOME TIGHTER THROUGH 
SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE AND SCEC FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 
SATURDAY MORNING. GRADIENTS QUICKLY RELAX AFTERWARD WITH NO 
HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  81  65  79 /  10  10  10  20 
FMY  63  83  63  82 /  10  10  10  20 
GIF  60  80  60  80 /  10  10  10  20 
SRQ  62  81  63  79 /  10  10  10  20 
BKV  58  81  58  80 /  10  10  10  20 
SPG  65  78  65  78 /  10  10  10  20 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...22/REYNES
SHORT TERM...24/COLSON
AVIATION...69/CLOSE

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