FXUS62 KTBW 170723
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
323 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017
A fairly typical August day is expected across west-central
and SW Florida on Thursday. The pressure gradient stays
relaxed with light low level flow dominated by afternoon sea
breeze circulation this afternoon. The sea breezes, deep
moisture and daytime heating will support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best coverage looks
to be across the interior where the Gulf and Atlantic
seabreezes look to collide.
Meanwhile, to our southeast a TUTT will move through the
Bahamas and into central Cuba. The TUTT will continue to
push westward towards the Florida Straits on Friday and move
into the Gulf Saturday. Drier air in the mid-levels,
associated with the TUTT, will move into the area on Friday.
This should help suppress some but still expecting SCT
coverage. Temps Thursday and Friday will be hot, lower to
mid 90s, with heat indices above 100.
In the upper levels, a TUTT low will be moving west out of
the Florida Straits through the end of the week and will
slowly cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the upcoming
weekend. As the TUTT departs, mid level high pressure will
build in from the Atlantic and hold through the middle of
At the surface, the subtropical ridge of high pressure over
the central portion of the Florida Peninsula during the
upcoming weekend will lift north through early next week,
and will hold north of the area through the end of the
period. With deep moisture remaining in place, the summer
pattern will continue with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms expected each afternoon. During the weekend,
light gradient flow will lead to widely scattered storms
possible throughout the afternoon and evening. As the ridge
lifts north early next week, stronger easterly flow will
lead to a more defined pattern, with storms developing over
the interior during the early afternoon, and building
towards the west coast through the late afternoon and early
evening. Storms will then shift offshore and dissipate
during the evening and overnight hours.
Prevailing VFR. Light and variable winds continue overnight.
Winds will remain light into the afternoon. By late morning
and early afternoon, increasing clouds with VCNTY TSRA as
bay and sea breezes set up. Localized MVFR/IFR possible
late in the period with thunderstorms. VCTS mentioned at all
TAF sites in the afternoon through the evening.
Atlantic high pressure meanders across central Fl and out
over the Gulf of Mexico for much of the weekend then lifts
into northern FL for the start of next week. The pressure
gradient remains relaxed with sea breeze circulations in the
afternoons. The main concern will be locally higher winds
and seas near thunderstorms.
No significant concerns through the forecast period with a
moist airmass keeping relative humidity remains above
critical levels and providing daily rain chances. Relaxed
high pressure over the region will result in light winds.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 92 80 91 79 / 40 10 30 10
FMY 93 77 93 76 / 50 30 40 20
GIF 95 76 94 75 / 60 20 50 20
SRQ 91 78 91 78 / 30 10 30 10
BKV 92 76 92 75 / 40 10 30 10
SPG 91 81 90 79 / 30 20 30 10
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/McKaughan
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming
NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion