Invest 93L-NW Caribbean

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 12:05 pm Post subject: Invest 93L-NW Caribbean

The NHC has started Invest 93L on the area of disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean. Pressure is 1008 MB, winds 20 kts.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 12:08 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 93L-NW Caribbean

The SHIPS models intensify this system to near 60 kts in 120 hours.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1213 UTC FRI JUN 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20090626 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090626 1200 090627 0000 090627 1200 090628 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 83.7W 18.2N 85.7W 19.7N 87.5W 21.0N 88.7W
BAMD 16.7N 83.7W 18.8N 85.2W 20.9N 86.6W 22.6N 87.9W
BAMM 16.7N 83.7W 18.6N 85.6W 20.3N 87.2W 21.9N 88.5W
LBAR 16.7N 83.7W 18.4N 84.8W 20.3N 85.8W 22.1N 86.5W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090628 1200 090629 1200 090630 1200 090701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.2N 89.8W 23.9N 90.5W 24.8N 90.6W 25.4N 92.2W
BAMD 23.5N 89.2W 24.3N 90.7W 24.1N 91.0W 24.0N 91.5W
BAMM 23.0N 89.6W 24.0N 90.9W 24.0N 91.2W 23.9N 92.3W
LBAR 23.5N 86.6W 25.1N 84.8W 26.5N 81.2W 29.5N 75.1W
SHIP 35KTS 45KTS 52KTS 59KTS
DSHP 33KTS 44KTS 51KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 83.7W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 82.7W DIRM12 = 328DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 81.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 12:17 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 93L-NW Caribbean

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 12:50 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 93L-NW Caribbean

The NHC has scheduled a recon flight for Sunday at 23N/90W which is the south central Gulf.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT FRI 26 JUNE 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-029

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY; POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 23N 90W AT 28/1800Z.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 1:07 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 93L-NW Caribbean

The NHC has upped the ante. Development potential is now 30 to 50%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO HONDURAS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY SATURDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND SPREAD WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 1:50 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 93L-NW Caribbean

The first run of the HWRF Hurricane model tracks a 50 kt tropical storm across south florida.

The first run of the GFDL Hurricane model shows only a weak area of low pressure crossing south florida.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 4:34 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 93L-NW Caribbean

Convection continues to increase.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 5:10 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 93L-NW Caribbean

The 18Z GFS at 72 hours.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

chris · Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 6:44 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 93L-NW Caribbean

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2009 7:00 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 93L-NW Caribbean

The second run of the GFDL Hurricane model is out and now shows a 65 knot Hurricane impacting southwest Florida. Please keep in mind that these models are basing this forecast on the predicted development of a tropical depression. At this time we don't have a tropical depression or even a weak closed surface low, so take these model runs with a grain of salt, but don't completely ignore the possibility of tropical cyclone development.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html