SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

I'll be brief now and elaborate more as the event becomes clearer in the days ahead. Convection in the NW Carribean will becom TS Wilma early next week. A piece of the Eastern trof which just brought the seasons first dry front through today will back SW and Wilma will be drawn North during the week. It is a bit early for exact tracking as the system has yet to develop but it appears to me as if it may come up just west or along the SW coast of FL by next weekend. Do not take this idea as gospel..........things can certainly change. Just keep in the back of your mind that next weekend could feature a major hurricane passing by/through on it's way North to phase with the polar jet and potentially cause a 1992 like super storm up the East coast. More later...

chris

I saw this earlier today and was wondering what was coming about with this system. Already, the system appears to be blowing up but anything could happen I'm sure. It sure is tracking very slowly which could make it strengthen even more if the system makes it in the Gulf. These storms that form in the Northern Caribbean are so hard to track with all the frontal boundrys that approach from the north and shift them around. The next couple of days we should have a better idea where its going to track and eventually end up. Right now might be a little to early to tell. Confused

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chris · Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2005 6:28 am Post subject: TD #24

The 5-day projectory doesnt look to good for TD #24.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic...shtml?5day
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SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Again briefly..................Storm should be TS Wilma by days end and meander slowely W then Nw the next few days as strong high ridging down over Florida will temporarily surpress it's Northward move. By Tuesday a more NNW move should begin and it should become a strong Cat 2-Cat 3 storm before passing over/near Western Cuba later thursday. Storm then gradually feels Westerlies and begins turning NE towards Floridas West Coast. Unable to determine if it's Ft Myers...Tampa etc yet. But it appears this storm will have a big effect around here Friday-Saturday. My best guess is Cat 3 at landfall right now......................More Later.................

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

SUN 11pm..............Briefly, do not be fooled by the westward shift in the US models. They are having a tough time with the slow erratic movement of Wilma. While the westward drift will probably delay a Florida landfall until Sat-Sun period, a NE curve IMO is still likely and the Euro's last run has a strong Cat 3 moving over our backyard.....that concerns me!!! Will try and get Euro map up ASAP..................

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Here is a look at late yesterday's Euro model...........It's got a storm with pressures as low as Rita over us.......Models will take until Thursday to start coming to a consensus with all kinds of crazy flip-floping until then.

http://www.capeweather.com/JeffsImages/Wilma.jpg

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

The link below shows the very light to non existing steering currents affecting Wilma. My thinking is although she is still drifting West, the stronger she becomes, the more she will pump the high to her East which will expand it westward from the Atlantic. If you follow the isobars on the Western side of that high, you will get an idea of why I feel Wilma will get turned NE or even ENE (a la Charley) into the West coast of Florida. I still feel a landfall between Naples and Tampa is most likely on Sunday night. I will not zero in until I see how Wilma interacts with the Yucatan in a couple of days. The storm will most likely reach Cat 4 strength if no real landfall in the Yucatan is reached, but will SLOWLY weaken on it's way into Florida. (Naples= Cat 3......Tampa = Cat 2).

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-...8dlm1.html

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Click on -3hrs then +3hrs to bring up current map............sorry

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Click on link below to keep track of the Model circus every 6 hours......

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe...orm_24.gif

tropix · Advanced Member Joined: Oct 16, 2005 Posts: 29

Maybe of some interest. I happen to get also the latest reports from Cuba. No clue as to how your Spanish is, but here we go...

WOCU31 MUHV 1711601.
Aviso de Ciclón Tropical.
Centro de Pronósticos, INSMET.

Fecha: 17 de Octubre de 2005. Hora: 12:01 PM.

AVISO DE CICLON TROPICAL No. 8.

TORMENTA TROPICAL WILMA.

...La Tormenta Tropical Wilma gana en organización e intensidad...

Se recomienda prestar mucha atención a la evolución y desarrollo de la Tormenta Tropical "Wilma" situada al Sur de Cuba por el peligro potencial que representa para Cuba.

Areas de chubascos, lluvias y tormentas eléctricas asociadas a las bandas externas de este sistema continuarán influyendo durante las próximas 12 a 24 horas sobre las provincias de Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma y hasta Camagüey, las que pueden ser fuertes y localmente intensas en zonas montañosas y de la costa Sur, como ha estado ocurriendo durante las últimas horas.

La Tormenta Tropical Wilma en el Mar Caribe occidental continuó ganando en organización e intensidad durante la mañana y ahora sus vientos máximos sostenidos son de 75 kilómetros por hora con rachas superiores. Su presión central ha descendido hasta 998 hectoPascal.

En las últimas horas se ha movido lentamente hacia el Suroeste a unos 7 kilómetros por hora.

Al mediodía de hoy, su centro fue estimado en los 16.3 grados de latitud Norte y los 80.0 grados de longitud Oeste, posición que lo sitúa a unos 355 kilómetros al Sursudeste de la Isla Caimán Grande en el Caribe occidental.

Se pronostica que en las próximas 12 a 24 horas este sistema se moverá entre el Suroeste y el Oeste muy lentamente, aunque en ocasiones se tornará errático.

Continuará ganando gradualmente en organización e intensidad y puede llegar a la categoría de huracán en las próximas 24 a 36 horas.

El próximo Aviso de Ciclón Tropical se emitirá a las seis de la tarde de hoy.

/Bert/