SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........

betterthanya · Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2005 1:26 pm Post subject: Link

Nice link. I see the winds are topping out at nearly 40 mph already.

tropix · Advanced Member Joined: Oct 16, 2005 Posts: 29

Yep. I know someone located close to Cabo Camaron (Nic.) with a professional setup. Once I have it, I'll relay. For those interested in a close radar with a 30 minutes refresh from the Yucatan, I can relay this as well. Let me know.

/Bert/

tropix · Advanced Member Joined: Oct 16, 2005 Posts: 29

OK. The Yucatan from the Mex SMN radar is here:
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
It gives zulu time. Coverage is almost the entire Yucatan, up to Cuba plus the channel. This is not an auto refresher, though comes up every 30 mins. with a new plate. Refresh from your browser.

/Bert/

tropix · Advanced Member Joined: Oct 16, 2005 Posts: 29

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search....amp;time=3
For the latest buoy observations and the current status.
42057 works again, relocated to 163 miles northwest of its original position. Wilma would go straight over that buoy, if W keeps the forecasted track to the north.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Now that the storm is finally chugging along, I am going to give my gut feeling guesstimate at this point. Wilma will make landfall Sunday Morning (early) between Port Charlotte and Venice. Her winds will be 115-120 gusts to 145. Her pressure will be between 940-945......A solid Cat 3. I believe she will hit Cat 4 SW of Cuba and slowly weaken on her way NE. Thats my story and I'm sticking with it (for now). I will once again eagerly wait for the NHC to adjust their track to mine Rolling Eyes

tropix · Advanced Member Joined: Oct 16, 2005 Posts: 29

It may become handy to have the shortwave emergency radio frequencies available. Here's what plays out on 14 mhz. The HAM to NHC reports are on 14.325
The net has not yet been activated, so you may at this time have only some sporadic traffic.

14185.0 USB Caribbean Emergency
14222.0 USB Health & Welfare
14245.0 USB Health & Welfare
14265.0 USB Salvation Army Team Emergency Radio (SATERN) (health & welfare)
14268.0 USB Amateur Radio Readiness Group
14275.0 USB Bermuda
14275.0 USB International Amateur Radio
14283.0 USB Caribus (health & welfare)
14300.0 USB Intercontinental Traffic
14300.0 USB Maritime Mobile Service
14303.0 USB International Assistance & Traffic
14313.0 USB Intercontinental Traffic (altn)
14313.0 USB Maritime Mobile Service (altn)
14316.0 USB Health & Welfare
14320.0 USB Health & Welfare
14325.0 USB Hurricane Watch (Amateur-to-National Hurricane Center)

12290.0 USB is US Coast Guard Distress

/Bert/

chris · Last edited by chris on Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:15 pm; edited 1 time in total

Pretty neat information you supplied there Bert. That weather station was impressive to see in Honduras using a Davis unit. Like betterthanya said, the winds are starting to move pretty swift at that site location. High wind speed today: (46.0 mph at 1:19pm). The one thing that probably worries me the most is where she will hit. A north hit could be a huge problem with storm surge with the eastern part of the storm having a huge amount of power (remember what katrina did in alabama?) South would be a little better depending on how far it dips. But ofcourse the best scenario would be if it didnt hit us at all. I have a feeling florida will not get by this one (imo). If it tracks correctly and builds to a major hurricane this will be the second to hit Florida this year (Dennis). Mad

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tropix · Advanced Member Joined: Oct 16, 2005 Posts: 29

Comment on SW46TER. Take a look at the SST's (I use also: http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Caribbean-Sea/SST.GIF ). Wilma has no real obstacles, and only very favorable condix. I agree with your Cat 3 (perhaps edging to a 4 even). As area of impact I'd prefer the UKMET, so I'll be tad more to the west, but with a sharper angle. It wouldn't surprise me if the UKMET changes in a day. My best guesstimation is between Marco and Bonita as a tight storm with not much outflow. We'll see if it gains speed once heading north. If it stays at 7 or 9 mph it will grow in size but may also be impacted by more shear.
The BP at the southend of Wilma is now 999.
cheers,
/bert/

tropix · Advanced Member Joined: Oct 16, 2005 Posts: 29

It's still too uncertain. It can pass by us. It will not pass by the USA, though. As to potential shear factors take a look at NAVLANTMETOCCEN MODEL [ http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/wxgri...aor+avnshr ]

I'll relay reports I get from the HAM bands to the list if you wish.
Let me know. Cheers,

/Bert/

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

As I watch Wilma expload this evening the pressure is dropping like a rock and by tomorrow morning the winds will catch up and will show a Cat 3 on it's way to a Cat 4 maybe by tomorrow night. If shear totally relaxes in the next 48 hrs, a brief spike to Cat 5 is a decent possibility. Slow weakening will begin as she turns East of North. The jog West tonight is solidifying my thoughts of a landfall just to our North. This storm will have hurricane force winds extending out over 100 miles from the center, so regardless where the eye crosses IMO we will experience hurricane conditions on the Cape. It is just a question weather or not we take a Charley-like raking again.......