SOUTH FLORIDA HURRICANE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND........

tropix · Advanced Member Joined: Oct 16, 2005 Posts: 29

On Tuesday at 6.44 pm Roatan reported a gust over 100 mph.
/bert/

tropix · Advanced Member Joined: Oct 16, 2005 Posts: 29

Wed 01.10 AM /

I put in some different variables for perspective

Results for 26.6N, 81.99W:
The eye of the storm is about 682 miles (1097 km) away.

If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 9 mph and directly towards you, it will take around 75.8 hours (3.2 days) to reach you.

If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 5 mph and directly towards you, it will take around 136.4 hours (5.7 days) to reach you.

If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 16 mph and directly towards you, it will take around 42.6 hours (1.8 days) to reach you.

Given the current windfield (100 miles from the center), tropical storm winds will be felt in 64.7 hours (2.7 days).

Given the current windfield (20 miles from the center), tropical storm winds will be felt in 73.5 hours (3.1 days).

The actual grid for CC is: 16.63767 N Lat and 81.99718 W Lon.

/Bert/

chris

Part of the 2am intermediate advisory:

chris

175mph, Cat 5, 892mb, eyewall 2 miles wide. Ties the Labor Day storm of 1935 for second lowest recorded pressure.
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chris · Posted: Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:43 am Post subject: NEW RECORD

884mb, lowest pressure ever recorded. A 78mb drop in just over 9 hours Exclamation

Wind speed still the same.
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porkerp · Experienced Member Joined: Jun 09, 2005 Posts: 147

It looks like naples/everglades city is the forecast track for landfall right now... Too close for comfort. If it makes a jog to the north like charley did we are in big trouble Shocked

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL...atest.html

reelweatherman

I agree pork. This looks real bad right now. I do think the chance of Wilma remaining this intense is slim. However, we may still see a Cat 3 or 4 approaching our coast. Good Luck to all!

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

I am astonished this morning!!!!!!!While I felt this storm could very well become a Cat 5, I did not in my wildest dreams think it could happen in 6 hours! This is very bad. If it has an IRC soon an can regain strength before Cuba's latitude then it will not have enough time to weaken to less than Cat 4 with the expected acceleration NE. I still feel confident landfall will be JUST North of us, not down in the Everglades as the storm still has a good westerly component to it and with it's growing size will not just make a hard right turn like the NHC track indicates but more of an arc which will explain my further North landfall projection.

tropix · Advanced Member Joined: Oct 16, 2005 Posts: 29

John Ferguson's images from aroun9.45 am on the Caymans

/Bert

chris

Nice images Bert. Some heavy wave action going on at the Caymans. Hopefully that wont be the case here. Smile

NHC moved there track farther north compared to the 5am advisory though. Mad

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