Invest 91L now tropical storm Henri

ccstorms

91L is once again developing deep convection over the center. The 18z NHC plot is 17.7N, 53.4W, Winds 35 kts, Pressure 1007 MB. The increase to 35 knots is significant as 35 kts is the threshold for tropical storm classification.
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LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

chris · Posted: Tue Oct 06, 2009 2:24 pm Post subject: Invest 91L Central Atlantic

This image updates:

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Chris
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ccstorms

The convective burst has -80C cloud tops. Very intense convection.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

91L is now tropical storm Henri.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN A RAPID INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED
ABOUT 525 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM HENRI AT 5 PM AST. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

NHC does not expect Henri to last long.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms

TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102009
500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009

ALTHOUGH IT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS NOW MIGRATED OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BASED ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...AND A
1336 UTC ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED WINDS TO 35 KT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM HENRI.
HENRI WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY 20-25 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW HENRI DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT. HENRI IS LOCATED ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. WATCHES ARE NOT
REQUIRED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AT THIS TIME SINCE THE FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THOSE ISLANDS.

THE FORMATION OF HENRI ILLUSTRATES HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO ANTICIPATE
THE CHANGES IN CONVECTION THAT DISTINGUISH STRONG TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES FROM WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES...PARTICULARLY WHEN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.

HENRI IS A FRENCH NAME AND IS PRONOUNCED AS AHN-REE WITH THE ACCENT
ON THE SECOND SYLLABLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/2100Z 17.8N 54.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 56.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.4N 58.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.5N 61.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

MeteorologistTV

Judging by the steering currents, the remnant low should continue west, then NW into South Florida.Maybe we get some showers and 20 mph winds.