Posted: Sun Oct 18, 2009 8:26 am Post subject: West Caribbean-Now Invest 94L
While we are enjoying the first cold front of the season I want to remind everyone of the Yogi Berra quote "It ain't over until it's over". We may have an interesting week ahead. A number of models that include the Nogaps, Ukmet, Nam, and most importantly the ECMWF, are forecasting tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean. The ECMWF which is the most respected model on the planet is forecasting a Hurricane developing in the western Caribbean and moves it north to a position near the Florida straits late this week. Currently in the western Caribbean an area of consistent showers and thunderstorms continues to fire up and this is the area that the models are picking up on. The northwest Caribbean has very warm water and very high TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) and this area of high TCHP extends north to the southeast gulf and Florida straits. So stay tuned! _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Last edited by ccstorms on Tue Oct 20, 2009 8:40 am; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:16 am Post subject: Re: West Caribbean-Now Invest 94L
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:40 am Post subject: Re: West Caribbean-Now Invest 94L
NWS TAMPA
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY) BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE NOW LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE GFS STILL BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH...JUST A BIT SLOWER AND IT DOES NOT GO AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF NOW LOSES THE FRONT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE BRINGING SOME SORT OF TROPICAL LOW UP TOWARD THE STATE FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFS DEPICTION OF THIS TROPICAL LOW IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND HAS LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. SINCE IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON WHERE...IF AT ALL...A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGHT BE IN 5 DAYS OR SO...I WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED WAS TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE NATURE COAST. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND RAIN CHANCES FARTHER NORTH...AND ALSO ADD CHANCES TO MONDAY AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL JUST MAKE THESE MINOR TWEAKS IN THAT DIRECTION JUST IN CASE MODELS FLIP BACK TO THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE FRONT CLEANLY THROUGH THE STATE. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Tue Oct 20, 2009 12:47 pm Post subject: Re: West Caribbean-Now Invest 94L
CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1339 UTC TUE OCT 20 2009
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
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