Ida >> This disturbed area has been consistant over the last few days and a there is now a model consensus for development. The NHC has now classified this area as Invest 97L and graded it as Code Orange. TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICAN

ccstorms · Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 7:56 am Post subject: Ida

This disturbed area has been consistant over the last few days and a there is now a model consensus for development. The NHC has now classified this area as Invest 97L and graded it as Code Orange.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF COSTA
RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Cape Coral.
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ccstorms · Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:04 am Post subject: Re: Ida

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ccstorms · Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 11:13 am Post subject: Re: Ida

Recon is set for Wednesday if the development trend continues. Convection has increased near the center and banding is developing. Wind shear is not a factor at this time.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST TUE 03 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-159

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF COSTA RICA)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/15151Z
D. 11.0N 82.0W
E. 04/1930Z TO 04/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

_________________
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Cape Coral.
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MeteorologistTV · Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:26 pm Post subject: Re: Ida

Another system, East of the northern Bahamas lies a surface low pressure with no convection, creeping to the west.The dry air is choking it to death.Nice naked swirl though.

chris · Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 8:39 pm Post subject: Re: Ida

hmm, models starting to shift a little bit more towards the north. This could be a tricky next few days trying to figure this sucker out.
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Wthrwatcher · Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:00 pm Post subject: Re: Ida

Boy what a strange season Question

Water is still plenty warm down there and the system seems to be holding it's own at the least. Will be watching those model tracks. Updates always appreciated Exclamation

.

MeteorologistTV · Posted: Tue Nov 03, 2009 10:31 pm Post subject: Re: Ida

What happened to the good old days when systems popped up and turn TD in 12 minutes?. Very Happy

PILOT941 · Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 1:19 am Post subject: Re: Ida

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 5:44 am Post subject: Re: Ida

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Cape Coral.
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ccstorms · Posted: Wed Nov 04, 2009 7:34 am Post subject: Re: Ida

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html