DISTURBANCE NEAR BARBADOS DESTINED FOR CUBA AND.............

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1172

I'm still mentally fatigue from Wilma but I need to warn you that the convection going on near Barbados is favorable for SOME development as it slowly pushes toward Cuba by early next week. This will not become a MAJOR hurricane at worst IMO affect FLA's EAST COAST as it recurves out to sea. Willl look at more over next few days and update. Also, I am not convinced TS Beta is going into Central America. I feel it will meander until the end of the weekend before deciding to move West or North.....

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1172

A quick note on Beta (sounds like a Star Wars character) .....If she drifts a little further North before arcing NW/West, she can miss making landfall in Nicaragua. If that happens, she isin the same general area Wilma got her act together and a strong trof coming into the S. Central Plains could indeed pick the storm up and drive it North/NE into Cuba and S. Florida. This is NOT the most likely scenario with this storm now (I'm more concerned with the other area nr. Barbados) but it is not an extreme long shot either. Rolling Eyes

chris

A portion of the NHC 5pm Advisory

chris · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2005 7:53 pm Post subject: 8pm NHC intermediate Advisory

Intermediate 8pm NHC update

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1172

Now that were into Greek it is an "it" Smile

And I am getting increasingly worried that "it" will ramp up again to a Cat 4 and head North. The only good thing is that with the cooler SST's now, the worst we could be hit with is a borderline Cat 2. Although a bad thunderstorm right now would be more than a lot of folks could handle. I have a vision of Tuesday.....seeing 2 storms approaching Florida.....One from the SSW and one from the SE.......It is not a pretty picture. Anyway, a strong gradient with increasing East winds should set up this weekend and away we go...........................

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1172

THE GAMES BEGIN Exclamation

TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL SUITE. THE
GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...GFS ENSEMBLE... AND ECMWF MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IMMEDIATELY FROM THE CURRENT POSITION. IN CONTRAST... THE UKMET...CANADIAN...CLIPER...LBAR...AND NHC98 MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FIRST GROUP APPEARS TO HAVE TOO MUCH RIDGE TO THE NORTH INITIALIZED... POSSIBLY DUE TO THE 00Z HEIGHTS AT SAN ANDRES BEING TOO HIGH. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASED 20 METERS BETWEEN 27/12Z AND 28/00Z...EVEN THOUGH BETA MOVED 30 NMI
CLOSER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1172

First the good news....Beta has moved slow enough that she isn't far enough North to clear Honduras and she has turned West. The bad news is that it will fall apart over the mountainous Honduras and transfer it's heat energy to the aformentioned Barbados system now located to Beta's NE (underneath Cuba) and most likely cause development off the Yucatan on Monday or Tuesday IMO. This system will cause a good deal of wet windy weather in S. FLA probably in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. The key to how much this new system develops is dependent on how quickly Beta gets into Honduras and falls apart, and whether a winter like low pressure system forms in the Northern Gulf. This will determine the shear factor influincing the new system.......More tomorrow....

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1172

Well the fact that Beta has turned SW was a big surprise to me. This now takes yesterdays ideas off the table but the confusion remains....how? Betas moisture is still eventually going to be pulled North into a sharp trof dropping into the Northern Gulf in a few days. The moisture from the other area of disturbed weather will come North also. As TPC discussed early this morning, a new cold core low will most likely form in the Gulf with infusion of heat/energy from the tropics into the base of this trof. At the very least< Florida should see a healthy dose of rain and gusty breezes from this system in the Tue-Thurs timeframe. It is still not out of the question this system transitions into either a hybrid or tropical entity before crossing the state and heading up the Eastern Seaboard late in the week. I apologize for the lack of continuity over the past several days regarding this system, but the course of all these events was altered greatly by the difference of 125 miles in placement of Beta.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1172

Well I guess I'll finish off this thread with a thank goodness we got off from this complex situation with just a soaking rain event. It could have been much worse. Sometimes I believe that there is divine intervention in weather as one disasterous event is rarely followed by another. While any rain at all is too much for many SE of here, at least there is no wind involved with this system as all the players interacted but stayed separate rather than bundle into one entity as I feared. Anyway, I am now looking at winter and will post a detailed outlook in the coming week. To give you a subtle hint.....it looks wicked cold for much of the nation East of the Rockies with above average storm frequency along the East Coast. Blocking retrograding Westward from Greenland to the NE may bring winter in early by the last week of November. As I stated before, winter weather is my forte and I am considerably more confident to deliver forecasts in the coming months compared to the opinions and guesstimates I have posted regarding the tropics.(some good....some not so good Embarassed

). Living in NY for 98% of my life, I kind of equate that along the same lines of why most hockey players are from Canada and not from the Southern U.S. I never had a need to study the tropics until I moved here 15 months ago and lived through 2 hurricanes. As you may have noticed I was the first (that I saw) to predict the historical flooding in the NE as I have a much better handle on how the tropics hand off energy to the westerlies with increasing accuracy further North. That being said, the NE US being my forecasting wheelhouse doesn't do me much good living down here on the Cape. I am confident though, that you will find the accuracy of my winter posts more than acceptable. Being that it will be boring dry season down here. I will begin posting weekly weather overviews of the Eastern US and focus down here as needed.