Special Weather Statement for Saturday 1/30

chris

Special Weather Statement - Lee (Florida)

Updated: Fri, 29 Jan 2010 20:08:17
CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
419 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2010

...BREEZY WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE TOWARD FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST. BOATERS IN THE GULF
AS WELL AS BAY AND INLAND WATERS WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY ROUGH
CONDITIONS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE GULF WATERS AND TAMPA BAY ON SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND STRONGEST
STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD WHERE UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MOVING IN OFF
THE GULF COULD CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...BUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
_________________
Chris
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chris

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
807 PM EST FRI JAN 29 2010

.UPDATE...AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY...YOU WOULD THINK THE
MODELS WOULD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
TIMING AND EXTEND OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS NOT REALLY THE CASE. THE NAM
AND GFS HAVE SIMILAR ENOUGH TIMING NOW...BRINGING SOME SORT OF
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA BETWEEN 2 AND 6
PM. THE SIMILARITIES END THERE HOWEVER AS THE NAM BRINGS VERY
LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN THROUGH OUR REGION WHILE THE GFS DUMPS
OVER AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THAT TIME. GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF
THE TWO MODELS THIS YEAR...ITS SAFER TO SIDE WITH THE GFS AND
PLAN FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS.

WINDS AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 40 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IF WE SEE ENOUGH HEATING EARLY IN THE DAY...WE WILL
TRANSPORT SOME OF THAT TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN 15 TO 25 MPH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STRONGER STORMS
COULD BRING SOME OF THE 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE...BUT I CAN
NOT SEE US GETTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT.

WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE LAKE WIND ADVISORIES FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...BELIEVE WE WILL
STOP JUST SHY OF MEETING CRITERIA.

HAVE TWEAKED THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS A BIT IN THE GRIDS...BUT
THIS HAS VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AS IT STANDS. THE
MAIN CHANGE IS TO DELAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA SOUTH UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
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chris

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
110 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2010

...MOST OF THE RAIN TO BE THROUGH TAMPA BAY AREA BETWEEN 4-5 PM
THEN DIMINISH IN FORT MYERS AREA THIS EVENING...

LEADING EDGE OF NARROW RAIN BAND FROM DAYTONA BEACH THROUGH TAMPA
BAY THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF. THIS 80 MILE WIDE BAND OF RAIN
WAS ALREADY LEAVING THE CEDAR KEY AREA. MUCH OF THE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WAS NEAR THE WARM LOOP CURRENT WATERS WITH ONLY A FEW
STROKES IN THE COOLER COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN TARPON SPRINGS AND
CEDAR KEY.

BACK EDGE OF RAIN BAND WILL BE THROUGH TAMPA BAY BETWEEN 4-5 PM
BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT. EXPECT ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS
FROM 5 TO 8 PM. RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH BUT
DIMINISH IN SIZE AS IT HEADS TOWARD FORT MYERS DO TO LACK OF UPPER
AIR SUPPORT.
_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
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