Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:52 pm Post subject: Another Gulf system on the horizon
NWS TAMPA:
"THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN A FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS REGARDING KEY ELEMENTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEM...INCLUDING INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL SPIN UP IN EARNEST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE HIGH IMPACTS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COAST FROM PINELLAS NORTH THROUGH LEVY COUNTY AS A PROLONGED AND SUSTAINED PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO PILE UP WATER ABOUT 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CORRESPONDING CLOSELY TO HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS THE MODELS DEPICT A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD...WITH 60 TO 75 KNOTS OF WIND AT H8 CROSSING THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER LAND WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE COAST...AND BUFKIT INDICATES A GUST POTENTIAL TO 35 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND RELATED HEADLINES.
WITH TIMING MORE IN SYNC...HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST POPS ACCORDINGLY AND DECREASED THEM FOR THE 12-18Z TIME ON FRIDAY AND LEFT THEM HIGH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
THE SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP MAY HELP TO ASSIST WITH GREATER DESTABILIZATION AND A MORE DEEPLY MIXED ATMOSPHERE...WHICH LENDS CREDENCE TO THE HIGHER MET MOS WIND VALUES. SEVERE WEATHER IS ANOTHER CONCERN...AS THE WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG DURING THE EVENT WITH ASSOCIATED HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES BEING QUITE HIGH. THE SPC OUTLOOK INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF FUTURE SEVERE PROBABILITIES. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER. BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE MONITORING THIS POSSIBILITY
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:08 pm Post subject: Re: Another Gulf system on the horizon
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
804 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010
...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON AREA LAKES FRIDAY...
.WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
804 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY.
WINDS ON AREA LAKES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 20 TO 29 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR OR ABOVE GALE
FORCE FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WILL
CREATE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON LARGER AREA LAKES WHICH COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGE TO...OR FLIP...SMALL PLEASURE CRAFT.
OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS MAY WISH TO POSTPONE LAKE RELATED ACTIVITIES
UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2879 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Feb 04, 2010 9:14 pm Post subject: Re: Another Gulf system on the horizon
Updated: Thu, 04 Feb 2010 21:08:24
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ON AREA LAKES FRIDAY...
.WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-060000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.LW.Y.0006.100205T1500Z-100206T0000Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
804 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO
7 PM EST FRIDAY.
WINDS ON AREA LAKES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 20 TO 29 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR OR ABOVE GALE
FORCE FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. WINDS OF THESE MAGNITUDES WILL
CREATE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON LARGER AREA LAKES WHICH COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGE TO...OR FLIP...SMALL PLEASURE CRAFT.
OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS MAY WISH TO POSTPONE LAKE RELATED ACTIVITIES
UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. _________________ Chris
Site Administrator
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Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2879 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 12:57 am Post subject: Re: Another Gulf system on the horizon
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 30N89W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
26N90W 18N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E TO N FLORIDA ALONG
31N86W 30N80W. LOW CEILINGS...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ARE OVER THE
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND COASTAL STATES. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 87W-93W. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING E. ELSEWHERE...S
FLORIDA HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD
FRONT ARE STRONG WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 80W PRODUCING 90-130 KT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND OVER S FLORIDA WHERE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO SOUTH CAROLINA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND RAIN EXTENDING S TO S FLORIDA. _________________ Chris
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