GFS forecasting 4 to 5 more gulf systems

ccstorms

The 12Z GFS is forecasting 4 to 5 more gulf systems over the next 15 days. The first arrives tomorrow evening followed by colder air and the second will arrive for the weekend with even colder air moving in behind the system. This second system may take a more southern track and could come in off the gulf south of Tampa. Pressure should be about 1003 MB. System 3, 4, and 5 will follow during the remaining 10 days.

CONVECTIVEMIKE

Ok I have had enough of this stuff already !!!!!!!!!!!

jimp · Advanced Member Joined: Jun 28, 2007 Posts: 40

Well, let's see. El Nino, no hurricanes!! El Nino, cold and rainy winter. Hmmm!! Tough call.

chris

FLUS42 KMFL 082157 AAA
HWOMFL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
457 PM EST MON FEB 8 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-091300-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
457 PM EST MON FEB 8 2010

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF A 1 TO 3 FOOT NORTHEAST SWELL AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY, PRIOR TO
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS, WHERE A LINGERING NORTHEAST SWELL WILL ENHANCE
THE ROUGH CONDITIONS. THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ALONG THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY, AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST.

A COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILL READINGS POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE
40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES.

THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES BY DAWN THURSDAY.
LOWS ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 DEGREES. ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN
AREAS...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL GENERALLY INTO THE
40S...WITH WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK, WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$

GREGORIA
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chris

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll...imate.html
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I actually don't mind getting the occasional rain Mike. It makes the weather a little more interesting this time of year when things are usually quiet. Cool

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ccstorms

The 12Z GFS has the first system squall line coming into SW Florida later this afternoon or evening as a 1010 mb gulf low moves into the panhandle. The GFS has the second system coming in friday night into saturday as a 1005 MB gulf low moving in and across Cape Coral or Naples.

CONVECTIVEMIKE

was looking at some modesl and they look like a conga line

chris

Special Weather Statement - Lee (Florida)

Updated: Tue, 09 Feb 2010 14:00:37
CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
946 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AREAS OF RAIN AND
SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT THEN MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON A BRISK NORTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS COLDER AIR
MASS MAY BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST WITH SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS STRONG COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

THE COLDER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE LOW WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S OVER THE
NATURE COAST AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS AND AREA LAKES. NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET
NEAR SHORE AND 7 TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS
IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK. OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS MAY ALSO WISH TO
POSTPONE LAKE RELATED ACTIVITIES UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

THE MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO ALLOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW
35 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE THE SPREAD OF ANY FIRE THAT
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE EXTRA CAREFUL WITH
ANY OUTDOOR OPEN FLAME.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES TO ENSURE THAT TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS
ARE COVERED OR BROUGHT INDOORS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PETS SHOULD ALSO BE
BROUGHT INDOORS. RESIDENTS PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS LATE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD DRESS WARMLY
TO PROTECT THEMSELVES FROM THE COLD. SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHING WILL
INSULATE YOU BETTER THAN A SINGLE COAT OR JACKET.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

$$

MCMICHAEL
Issuing Weather Forecast Office Homepage
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Chris
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chris

84 Hour GFS model.

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