Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2879 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sat Mar 27, 2010 1:08 pm Post subject: Rain on the way!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
121 PM EDT SAT MAR 27 2010
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NNE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS IT
SHIFTS EAST WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARM MOIST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE 60-70 PERCENT
WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. HAVE
70-80 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN AS IT STARTS TO
CLEAR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH MONDAY HAVE 30-60 PERCENT CHANCES.
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS FRONT AS A 40-50 KNOT LL JET WILL BE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH GOOD HELICITIES. THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR
FLOODING. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA AT THE SFC MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO
SWING THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S-UPPER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S NORTH AND COASTAL TO THE MID-UPPER
70S INLAND AND SOUTH.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...PROGRESSIVE AMPLIFIED SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. MODELS TODAY CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE EAST COAST UPPER
TROUGH LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST WITH UPPER/SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING IN AND BECOMING THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF SOME 8 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THEN CLIMB BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. _________________ Chris
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Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2879 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sun Mar 28, 2010 9:00 am Post subject: Re: Rain on the way!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 AM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010
.DISCUSSION...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PULL A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF TODAY
AND THEN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY (HELICITY 300-500 M2/S2 RANGE LI'S -3 TO -4C) VIA MODEL
SOUNDINGS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IN THE 45-50 KNOT
RANGE AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALL
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THE MAIN HAZARDS.
IN ADDITION FAVORABLE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ~10KFT COMBINED WITH
COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (50H TEMPS ~-13C) HELPING TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL. GIVEN ALL
OF THIS WILL ADD WORDING FOR GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN TO
THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FORECAST PERIODS IN A ZONE UPDATE LATER
THIS MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LLWS IN PLACE THIS MORNING. WILL THEN HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF WATERS CAUSING
SOME MVFR VSBYS/CEILINGS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR
TO LCL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. RAINS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...C-MAN AND OFFSHORE BUOYS INDICATING SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE
10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY
CONTINUES EXPECT WINDS/SEAS TO SLOWLY RAMP UP AND SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEAR/OFFSHORE WATERS BY MID
AFTERNOON. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF WATERS WITH
WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL ADD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO ADD WORDING FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND MONDAY GIVEN THE TRENDS MENTIONED
ABOVE. OTHER THAN THIS...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
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