MODELS-2010

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 2:24 pm Post subject: MODELS-2010

This thread will be for posting what the models are forecasting in regards to "Future" storms. This thread will not discuss current Invests or storms as they will have their own threads as they develop. I expect this thread to become very long as it will be going until the end of the 2010 Hurricane season. Information, questions, and comments are welcome from all, but please stay within the thread guideline. Any posts not related to the models forecasting future development will be deleted as I would like this thread to be 'one stop shopping' for model information. That would make it very easy for those wanting to get the model info without searching all the threads.

Thanks!!
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 4:14 pm Post subject: Re: MODELS-2010

Over the last few days the global models are signaling the start of the Cape Verde season. Some of the signs are troubling. First is that they show a strengthening and expanding Bermuda High which will extend all the way east to the Azores High. This type of alignment drives Cape Verde systems west with little chance of recurving until they pass 75W or even further west into the west caribbean and gulf. In effect the door to the southeast U.S. and gulf would be open. Second is the weakening of the TUTT low which has been causing wind shear and preventing many waves from developing as they pass 50W. Third is the arrival of the wet phase of the MJO which will add fuel to the fire. Currently the models are forecasting a large disturbance over Africa to become a tropical cyclone as it enters the Atlantic in a few days.
Below are some images of todays 12Z GFS.

at 126 hrs.

at 144 hrs.

at 162 hrs.

at 192 hrs.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 4:22 pm Post subject: Re: MODELS-2010

The models consisting of the GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET are also forecasting another gulf system for the coming week. You can see the GFS showing it in the previous post.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 8:29 pm Post subject: Re: MODELS-2010

18Z GFS at 120 Hrs. Northern Gulf.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

CONVECTIVEMIKE · Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2010 8:38 pm Post subject: Re: MODELS-2010

Correct me if I am wrong but wouldn't this be the same mess that once was Colin that seems like it wants to take up residence there ?

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2010 4:31 am Post subject: Re: MODELS-2010

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2010 4:35 am Post subject: Re: MODELS-2010

NWS Tampa
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM AS SYNOPTIC PATTERNS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE REMNANTS OF TD 5. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM PUSHING WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY WILL LITTLE IMPACT FOR OUR CWA OTHER THAN HELPING TO MAINTAIN SOME EXCESS TROPICAL MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF THE AREA.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2010 4:56 am Post subject: Re: MODELS-2010

NWS New Orleans

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO RETURN THE REMNANTS OF TD 5 BACK TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND TUESDAY. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES THAT RESULT IN THE MODEL DEVELOPING NEARLY 50 KT SURFACE WINDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COAST WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER LAND. THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL GFS RUNS...BUT STRENGTH OF CIRCULATION APPEARS WELL OVERDONE. ECMWF DOES HAVE A SIMILAR SCENARIO...ALBEIT WEAKER WITH THE WIND FIELD...AND A LOW TRACK SOMEWHAT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE GFS TRACK. LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF SOLUTION.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

CONVECTIVEMIKE · Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2010 9:44 am Post subject: Re: MODELS-2010

Good Catch Lou. Shakes head to loosen the cobwebs. Im 45 so I use that as an excuse.

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2010 12:55 pm Post subject: Re: MODELS-2010

The 12Z NAM at 84 hours has a tropical cyclone in the northern gulf and a tropical cyclone in the northwest Caribbean.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html