TOMAS

stormwatcher · Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 4:30 pm Post subject: Re: TOMAS

YUP...hot towers lighting up! He's getting his act together. Crying or Very sad

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 4:51 pm Post subject: Re: TOMAS

I have to say that the GFS has been unreal this year since the upgraded version was released. The current location of Tomas is where the GFS forecast it was going to be back on October 25. ...and I mean exactly at this location and exactly at this time!
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 4:53 pm Post subject: Re: TOMAS

Rapid Intensity Index is way up.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 65% is 5.1 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 51% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 38% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Nov 03, 2010 5:06 pm Post subject: Re: TOMAS

Recon is reporting that the low level center is 16 miles east of the mid-level center. Should they become vertically aligned Tomas will explode.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

stormwatcher · Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 11:15 am Post subject: Re: TOMAS

The little peak-a-boo I see you COC is moving west to west northwest, but mostly WEST south of Jamaica at 16N, 76.3W.

Not sure about what happened to the northward movement. Rolling Eyes

Manuel · Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 4:40 pm Post subject: Re: TOMAS

Is the NAM, which keeps Tomás, in the Caribbean, totally incorrect?

Question

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:17 pm Post subject: Re: TOMAS

I think the NAM is out to lunch.

Tomas is getting stronger quickly now.

NHC 00Z Plot
17.0N, 75.7W, Winds 55 Kts, Pressure 989 MB

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Nov 05, 2010 4:09 am Post subject: Re: TOMAS

5:00 AM EDT Fri Nov 5
Location: 18.1°N 74.9°W
Max sustained: 80 mph
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html