Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2010 10:55 am Post subject: Invest 94L-SW Caribbean
This area has support among the global models. Probably be an Invest soon.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EST FRI 12 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-164
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 12.5N 79.0W AT 15/1800Z. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Last edited by ccstorms on Sat Nov 13, 2010 6:52 am; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2010 2:44 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 94L-SW Caribbean
Now Code Orange-30%.
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Posted: Fri Nov 12, 2010 3:19 pm Post subject: Re: Invest 94L-SW Caribbean
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI NOV 12 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sat Nov 13, 2010 6:54 am Post subject: Re: Invest 94L-SW Caribbean
40%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SAT NOV 13 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Posted: Tue Nov 16, 2010 2:55 pm Post subject: Re: Reply
Zinnia83 wrote:
Despite being disorganized, 94L is persisting.... Is there any model updates or thoughts on this system?
The models are jumping ship. I doubt 94L will do much. I'm tempted to say that the 2010 season is over but the GFS says otherwise. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
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