Hurricane Conference.

DENDude · Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2006 12:26 am Post subject: Hurricane Conference.

How bad dose every body think the 2006 Hurricane Season is going to be?

According to the 10th annual Caribean Hurricane Conference in the bahammas it could be like 2005.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1121

While nobody can realistically know for sure how many hurricanes will form this year, there is a likelyhood that we will deal with above average seasons for the next 8-12 years. This is due to ocean warming/cooling cycles. The Atlantic has been in a warming cycle since the turn of the century, but since large bodies of water take a long time to heat or cool, it took until 2004 to really get cooking. Even after the Atlantic breaks out of it's warming cycle, it will take several years for it to appreciably cool down. Other annual variables to consider include Sahara dust clouds which get caught up in the trade winds and sometimes make it all the way over to Florida. This not only turns our skies smoky/hazy, but also negatively affect the formations of tropical systems. So while it is likely to be another year of many storms, nobody can honestly tell you for sure how many or if they will affect the United States. Don't worry, if it has a swirl 2000 miles away from here, you will get up to date info and out on the limb landfall forecasts (right or wrong Rolling Eyes

) right here...................Stay tuned......................

chris · Posted: Wed Mar 22, 2006 1:34 am Post subject: Re: Hurricane Conference.

Here is a pretty good article on the forecasting for the 2006 hurricane season.

http://tinyurl.com/bqbm7

Part of the article is quoted below...I'd like to know how they can say that they don't expect "as many landfalling major hurricanes" when the season has not even started. Seems way to early to make any kind of judgement. Besides the last two years have been brutal and now all of a sudden it changes...hmmm...very interesting

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1121

In a nut shell..............the current established early spring pattern in the Eastern US consists of a Rex Block where the polar vortex is quasi-stationary in extreme SE Canada. A series of short waves rotate around this vortex and continually reenforce the trof. Patterns like this at the beginning of spring, combined with very warm water off the East Coast usually lead to a trof setting up off the NE Coast in the summer months. To get hurricanes into the US, from the East, you need a high over the north atlantic whos clockwise flow will direct the storms westward. A trof will tend to deflect storms before they hit the East coast. Now this pattern will flip from time to time and if a storm is out there, then all bets are off. But if the pattern is somewhat persistent during hurricane season, it will lesson the opportunities for landfalls. My gut feeling is any hit on Florida will come late in the season. The Texas coast and New England (due to warm water) may take the majority of the hits this year...............But make no mistake...............we are in a long term pattern of above normal hurricanes and even if only 1 hits Florida, like Katrina...................that will be more then enough Rolling Eyes

chris · Posted: Tue Mar 28, 2006 9:49 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane Conference.

Thats a very good way of putting it and great information. Maybe Florida will be lucky this year and have 0 landfalls. Now that would be really nice to see. Very Happy

Only 2 more months and the games begin. Mad

I've been keeping an eye on SST's and they are already beginning to rise in the Atlantic. I wonder if the season will start early this year. The water temp seems extremely warm near central america on the pacific side. Isnt this normally where pacific storms develop. And if I'm correct doesnt hurricane season start a little earlier in the Pacific? I could be wrong. Idea

http://www.capeweather.com/animated-sea...ature.html
_________________
Chris
Site Administrator
Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1121

Chris,
On those maps you posted, you want to focus more on the anormality (2nd map) rather than the actual SST map. While there is a patch of very warm water West of Central America, most of the Pacific is normal to cooler than normal, while the Atlantic from the Bahamas to Africa is normal to warmer than normal. Usually the Pacific season does start earlier. However, with that ocean in a gradual cooling cycle, and the pool of warm water pretty far South, it could be disrupted by active Easterly trade winds along the ITCZ. I would be surprised to see an active Pacific season. If the Atlantic season starts early, I would look down off the Yucatan/ Bay of Campechi area to kick things off. Texas/ Mexico and N.C. to MASS are my target areas to see the lion share of activity this year. But as I said before, even if only 1 hurricane affects S. Florida out of 15, if it's a cat 3 or 4 it will be more than we can afford here this season..............................