WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

ccstorms · Posted: Tue May 17, 2011 7:33 am Post subject: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

The first tropical wave is on the map (seen below) at 8N & 50W. The wave axis will move into the southern Caribbean and portions of south America. The conditions in the Caribbean are still hostile for development and should remain that way for another few weeks. This is just an indication that the 2011 season is almost here. The ITCZ has been very active all winter as it was last year prior to the 2010 season. The difference this year is that development is expected to occur further west which will increase the threat to the U.S.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

Wthrwatcher · Posted: Tue May 17, 2011 12:55 pm Post subject: Wave watching

Thanks for update. Looks like that time of year is fast approaching. Looking forward to following the season, but also know the U.S. hasn't been hit my a major since Ike in 2008. We will be extremely lucky to get another bye year Sad

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ccstorms · Posted: Sat May 21, 2011 7:16 am Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

Wave 1 is now in the Caribbean and northern Venezuela near 69W. No development expected. No other tropical waves are on the map.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Sun May 22, 2011 5:49 am Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

Wave 2 is on the map at 7N and 23W. This wave should be in the western Caribbean around June 1. The GFS is hinting at possible development in that location at the end of this month.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Thu May 26, 2011 1:10 pm Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

Wave 3 has been initialized near 55W. No development expected. The ITCZ is very active and the latest satellite image looks more like August than late May. I'm not expecting any development from the convective areas along the ITCZ but around May 31 to June 1 there could be a spin-up in the western Caribbean. A number of the models are starting to signal some development in that area. Just something to watch for next week. Meanwhile here's a look at the active ITCZ.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Thu May 26, 2011 8:00 pm Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

Wave 4 has been initialized at 45W. Wave 3 is now at 56W.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri May 27, 2011 7:18 am Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

The models have been sniffing around the western Caribbean for nearly a week and it appears they have now picked up a scent. The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, NAM. and NOGAPS are all showing possible development in the western to southwestern Caribbean beginning around June 1.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html