WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 1:42 pm Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

The 12Z NAM is still on new development in the western Caribbean and has been joined by the 12Z GFS.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:01 pm Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL
MEXICO.

BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO
OCCUR...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE BEING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 825 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

chris · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:52 pm Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

Looks like the NAM also wants to keep Rina as a low in the Gulf the next three days. Now that could get really interesting if it plays out.
_________________
Chris
Site Admin
Visit our Facebook page! CLICK HERE!

chris · Posted: Thu Oct 27, 2011 7:54 pm Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc...mageSize=M
_________________
Chris
Site Admin
Visit our Facebook page! CLICK HERE!

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 4:39 am Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF CANCUN MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Fri Oct 28, 2011 5:15 pm Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

The NAM and GFS continue to forecast TC development in the western Caribbean and have been joined by the Ukmet, Nogaps, and FIM. The CMC and Euro are not interested.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Sat Oct 29, 2011 6:55 am Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 1050 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND
ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

Zinnia83 · Posted: Sun Oct 30, 2011 6:53 pm Post subject: Reply

And begins another era of a quiet Atlantic.... Laughing

ccstorms · Posted: Mon Nov 07, 2011 6:41 pm Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

The Euro, GFS, CMC, and Nogaps, are forecasting another TC forming in the SW Caribbean next week. The models seem to be ignoring the calendar.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

Wthrwatcher · Posted: Tue Nov 08, 2011 5:36 pm Post subject: Re: WAVES & MODELS WATCH 2011

I do remember a couple of November storms that formed down there. In particular, one named Michelle (8-10years ago) . I think it got up to a strong cat2 and ended hooking off almost due east. We were fine, but Cuba took a beating. So still got one eye half open anyway.