Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 7:59 am Post subject: Re: Rina-Deactivated
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1234 UTC FRI OCT 21 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 9:43 am Post subject: Re: Rina-Deactivated
NWS KEY WEST
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE 00Z RUN OF THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL CASTS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF
STRENGTHENS THIS SURFACE CIRCULATION AND LIFTS IT NORTHWARD TOWARDS
WESTERN CUBA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. FALLING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD
TIGHTEN OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. A LONG FETCH OF THESE WINDS SHOULD KEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...REGARDLESS OF
WHETHER A BONA-FIDE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. WE OPTED FOR LOW-END SCATTERED (30%) COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ALSO OPTED FOR A CONSERVATIVE
WIND FORECAST...BUT WINDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED NEXT WEEK IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS VERIFY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
RISE TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY NEXT
WEEK. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:01 am Post subject: Re: Rina-Deactivated
12Z NAM at 84 hours has a TC in the western Caribbean and another TC entering the eastern Caribbean. Since the NAM has been on a hot streak I would not totally rule out this scenario. The existence of a strong active tropical wave east of the Windward Islands supports the NAM forecast of development of a second TC which is also supported by the GFS and the 10% tag applied to the disturbance by the NHC.
Posted: Fri Oct 21, 2011 10:31 am Post subject: Re: Rina-Deactivated
Recon set for tomorrow.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 21 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-143
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 22/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 22/1530Z
D. 13.5N 80.0W
E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX SYSTEM AT 23/1800Z
NEAR 14.5N 80.5W.
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