Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: BERYL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 1:21 pm Post subject: Re: BERYL
Yes, it appears that way to me too. It will probably come to screeching halt north of the Bahamas where things could get interesting. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Thu May 24, 2012 2:07 pm Post subject: Re: BERYL
SHIPS model intensifies 94L to 43 Kts in 24 hours.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC THU MAY 24 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
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