Posted: Fri Jul 21, 2006 3:14 pm Post subject: AREA OF INTEREST
The convective blow-up in the southeast gulf along a trough is quite interesting. It seems a Quikscat satellite pass is showing rotation near or at the surface. Same thing is reflected in the buoy readings.
Here's the Key West radar.
Lets see if the convection continues to fire. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1471 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Fri Jul 21, 2006 9:55 pm Post subject: Re: AREA OF INTEREST
That is interesting and there is a lot of precipitation going on down there. Do you have any thought on what the weather is going to be like in the Keys this coming week? I will be down there from 7/22-7/29 and hope to have dynamite weather. But, from the looks of it, it seems to be raining all the time. _________________ Chris
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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
Posted: Fri Jul 21, 2006 10:06 pm Post subject: Re: AREA OF INTEREST
Chris, it should be typical keys wx.........if that area in the southeast gulf doesn't spin up. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1471 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Fri Jul 21, 2006 10:13 pm Post subject: Re: AREA OF INTEREST
I hope it doesnt but I can see now what you are talking about. It's very noticeable on satellite. If I can get 4-5 days of good wx down there I'll be a happy camper. _________________ Chris
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Cape Coral and Southwest Florida Online Weather
Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 8:12 am Post subject: Re: AREA OF INTEREST
While this system could get better organized in the next day or two, it will get pulled NE out to sea by whats going on to the North this weekend. Next Gulf threat should come NW out of Caribean next week.............and SHOULD affect the Western Gulf..........not into Florida.........
Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 9:12 am Post subject: Re: AREA OF INTEREST
SW46. I see the same initial setup as last year regarding the waves. In close development. The SAL is so dense that the waves rolling off Africa have no chance to develop until they get passed 60W. If the southern portion of a wave does develop it means Caribbean and Gulf, and development of the north portion means Florida, Bahamas, and east coast.
The location where the east coast trough sets up is going to be critical. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Sat Jul 22, 2006 10:37 am Post subject: Re: AREA OF INTEREST
Yep.................that is correct. I anticipate the SE ridge getting much more dominant from Aug. thru the end of summer. Any trofs should be shallow and transient. The ridge will continue to be displaced further north than usual due to the warm SST's. I agree that anything affecting Florida from the East should be home grown. However, when these aformentioned summer trofs split and a piece tails SW into the Gulf, a corridor for any disturbance in the Western Caribean will exist and direct the moisture towards the Gulf. At that point theexact positioning and strengths of the SE ridge and a probable ridge over west Texas will determine ultimate steering
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