Joined: May 21, 2006 Posts: 132 Location: Southeast Florida
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 1:53 am Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm Chris
It is amazing chris look to the NW of the main convection.The Actual low pressure has moved away from the thunderstorms it would appear.Look on the visible satellite pretty interesting .
Joined: May 21, 2006 Posts: 132 Location: Southeast Florida
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:09 am Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm Chris
Down to 45mph this system is a gonner.
HRIS IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED IN A HURRY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY
FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 1010 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO
FAR IS ONLY 38 KNOTS. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE
CIRCULATION HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS... AND THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. I WAS TEMPTED
TO FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVEN DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A
STEADY STATE CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.
THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. ACCORDING TO ALL GLOBAL
MODELS...A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...CHRIS...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE SYSTEM...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND
EVENTUALLY REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN FIVE DAYS. THE
DILEMMA IS THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. IT COULD WEAKEN
FURTHER AND DISSIPATE OR COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH. I AM IN FAVOR
OF WEAKENING.
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 8:20 am Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm Chris
chris has a very well developed LLC. I would not celebrate it's demise just yet. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 11:04 am Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm Chris
Agreed Now that the low level swirl has separated from the mid level circulation, they are no longer competing with one another to rid themselves of the dry air being entrained that has kept the system from properly vertically stacking. The mid level system should be destroyed by the dry air and shear. The low level swirl is well defined and (like Pork said).. IF IT CAN AVOID CUBA, I would be surprised if it did not redevelop in the Gulf under favorable conditions with a big ridge over the northern Gulf directing it towards Texas/ NE Mexico
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:51 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm Chris
I think what you were referring to was a sun reflection on that microwave loop. You see different versions of that on normal sat. pics sometimes as a shadow or as a brightness going by. All has to do with sun angle
Posted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 9:01 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical Storm Chris
Just about every model is forecasting an upper low to form near Puerto Rico. There is also an upper low in the bahamas just off the florida east coast. Chris will wind up smack dab in between these two features which will provide good vertical shear and two outflow channels. In other words...... Chris will find itself in a very good location for rapid development by tomorrow night. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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Now that the low level swirl has separated from the mid level circulation, they are no longer competing with one another to rid themselves of the dry air being entrained that has kept the system from properly vertically stacking. The mid level system should be destroyed by the dry air and shear. The low level swirl is well defined and (like Pork said).. IF IT CAN AVOID CUBA, I would be surprised if it did not redevelop in the Gulf under favorable conditions with a big ridge over the northern Gulf directing it towards Texas/ NE Mexico
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