Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 7:25 pm Post subject: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia..........
A storm gathering strength offshore the East Coast will develop into a hurricane like system with possible warm core characteristics (eye like feature) developing. Storm will back Southward and possibly entrain heat energy from system over Bahamas (a la perfect storm?) and cause major beach erosion, coastal flooding and 6-10 inches of rain. Wind gusts of hurricane force will occur if system does indeed retrograde over the Outer Banks. Even if it stays offshore, it will be a force to be reconed (and reckoned) with. I have no confidence in the NHC this year that upon development of warm core features that it would be named as the rules of development are clearly being redefined this year. After all, I'm sure they can find a high pressure cell to blame the winds on......................
Posted: Wed Oct 04, 2006 9:19 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia..........
By the way.............My above post was supposed to be geared towards the worst case scenario of how this system plays out. The more likely (at this time sequence of events is as follows;).....The cold front comes down into the mid-atlantic as a wave moves east along it. The low develops about 125-150 mi. east of Virginia and comes back west....... then turns southwest to a position along the NC Outer Banks late Saturday evening. Now if the tropical wave near the Bahamas is fully entrained, the extreme would occur. Without the entrainment, there should be 60 mph wind gusts, 20+ foot waves at the mouth of the Chesapeake and around 4 inches of rain by Saturday. Next..... is a southward drift to a position near 30 north and 77.5 west by Tuesday night, and no model should have a good read on this system. In fact, it may sit around and wait and come back north as the next trof digs in, possibly affecting the same areas again!
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 7:57 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia..........
Big ticket storm still on track...............as it sinks Southward next week, it should mean some low humidity, beautiful ...breezy weather on the Cape........ A major pattern shift arriving next week with big, lasting trof to set up in midwest/east. Second half of October should be below normal up and down the coast. Danger though is very warm Gulf water in this pattern can cause homegrown tropical mischief.
LAKE GEORGE, NY 7:45 PM
Temp: 43 F
Wind: NE-10 G12
Pressure: 30.31" R
Dewpoint: 34 F
Clear w/ big full moon
Last edited by SW46TER on Fri Oct 06, 2006 9:48 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Thu Oct 05, 2006 10:17 pm Post subject: Re: Hurricane-Like Storm To Batter Carolinas/ Virginia..........
MeteorologistTV wrote:
Thanks for the update.Is there any threat to south Florida?
Not likely from this developing storm but a west-east moving system homegrown along a stalled front in the South-Central Gulf is certainly a worry in this pattern during October.
Tonight into tomorrow will be worst of storm ..................which will not entrain 99L...............Hopefully 99L will pull it away from the coast before too much damage occurs........
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