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Cape Coral Online Weather :: View topic - SOUTHWEST GULF FIRING UP-NOW INVEST 92L
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SOUTHWEST GULF FIRING UP-NOW INVEST 92L
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This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Cape Coral Online Weather Forum Index -> 2006 Hurricane Season
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ccstorms
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Posts: 2147
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 9:48 am    Post subject: Re: SOUTHWEST GULF FIRING UP-NOW INVEST 92L Reply with quote

1200Z model run- 25 kts... 1005 MB.


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20061015 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061015 1200 061016 0000 061016 1200 061017 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 97.8W 25.7N 96.7W 29.5N 93.4W 33.9N 87.6W
BAMM 22.5N 97.8W 25.7N 97.2W 29.6N 94.9W 34.0N 90.6W
A98E 22.5N 97.8W 23.5N 97.7W 25.6N 96.2W 28.7N 93.6W
LBAR 22.5N 97.8W 24.9N 97.2W 27.9N 95.1W 31.3N 91.3W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 33KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061017 1200 061018 1200 061019 1200 061020 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 37.3N 79.4W 36.9N 65.7W 32.3N 59.6W 28.8N 57.8W
BAMM 37.8N 84.4W 41.1N 72.9W 39.8N 61.0W 37.9N 48.8W
A98E 31.4N 89.5W 34.7N 80.4W 35.1N 70.3W 33.4N 61.3W
LBAR 33.9N 86.1W 34.5N 74.7W 32.2N 72.8W 35.2N 73.5W
SHIP 52KTS 49KTS 43KTS 26KTS
DSHP 28KTS 29KTS 27KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 97.8W DIRCUR = 340DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 21.6N LONM12 = 97.5W DIRM12 = 338DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 97.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 3:39 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTHWEST GULF FIRING UP-NOW INVEST 92L Reply with quote

Barometric pressure graph at buoy 42002. Shocked

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?...&uom=E
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 3:43 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTHWEST GULF FIRING UP-NOW INVEST 92L Reply with quote

1800Z model run... 25 kts... 1003 MB... 29.62


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922006) ON 20061015 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
061015 1800 061016 0600 061016 1800 061017 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.2N 97.1W 26.9N 95.7W 31.5N 92.0W 36.0N 84.8W
BAMM 23.2N 97.1W 27.2N 95.2W 31.8N 91.4W 36.1N 85.7W
A98E 23.2N 97.1W 24.3N 96.4W 26.4N 94.3W 29.6N 91.4W
LBAR 23.2N 97.1W 25.9N 95.8W 29.3N 93.1W 32.5N 89.1W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 29KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
061017 1800 061018 1800 061019 1800 061020 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 38.7N 75.8W 38.3N 63.1W 34.4N 58.9W 29.3N 59.8W
BAMM 39.1N 79.5W 41.4N 69.7W 40.3N 61.9W 36.3N 56.0W
A98E 31.9N 87.1W 34.1N 77.8W 33.5N 70.1W 29.8N 67.0W
LBAR 34.8N 84.1W 36.5N 73.4W 35.0N 70.7W 31.7N 71.0W
SHIP 52KTS 48KTS 40KTS 17KTS
DSHP 28KTS 31KTS 23KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.2N LONCUR = 97.1W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 97.6W DIRM12 = 5DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 21.3N LONM24 = 97.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1006MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.

Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2006 4:30 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTHWEST GULF FIRING UP-NOW INVEST 92L Reply with quote

The 1003 MB pressure is significant. Here's the initial pressure reading for the nine named storms when the first advisory was issued as they became a tropical depression.

ALBERTO-1003
BERYL-1011
CHRIS-1011
DEBBY-1007
ERNESTO-1007
FLORENCE-1005
GORDON-1012
HELENE-1007
ISAAC-1012
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Lou
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2006 5:43 am    Post subject: Re: SOUTHWEST GULF FIRING UP-NOW INVEST 92L Reply with quote

This is why the low pressure readings are significant. It doesn't take a tropical system to cause problems when you have a large difference in pressure producing a gradient and a long fetch of onshore winds.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

LAZ051>054-TXZ215-161315-
/O.CON.KLCH.CF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-061017T0000Z/
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-JEFFERSON-
1205 AM CDT MON OCT 16 2006

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

COASTAL FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE CITY OF CAMERON.

STRONG EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PILE-UP WATER ALONG THE COAST.
THE ACTUAL TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE THE PREDICTED
TIDES.

THE HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 1 AND 2 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE
ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 4 TO 4.5 FEET... BASED ON THE
CURRENT TREND.

ACTUAL TIDES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING.

IN CAMERON... WATER MAY COVER PARTS OF HIGHWAY 82 BETWEEN HOLLY
BEACH AND JOHNSON BAYOU... AND BETWEEN OAK GROVE AND GRAND
CHENIER. ALSO... WATER MAY COVER MAIN STREET IN THE CITY OF
CAMERON.

IN JEFFERSON... WATER MAY COVER PARTS OF HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN
SABINE PASS AND PORT ARTHUR.

IN ST MARY... WATER MAY CREEP INTO CYPREMORT POINT STATE PARK AND
BURNS POINT RECREATION AREA.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR
IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.
_________________
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Lou
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chris
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2006 6:26 am    Post subject: Re: SOUTHWEST GULF FIRING UP-NOW INVEST 92L Reply with quote

A lot of rain will be heading into Tx today. Flood warnings are already in effect. This storm reminds me of when Houston got flooded about 5 years ago. Hope it's not as severe this time around.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2006 5:25 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTHWEST GULF FIRING UP-NOW INVEST 92L Reply with quote

Damage reports from NWS Lake Charles, LA. Sad

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/la/public.html
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Weatherman911
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2006 6:48 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTHWEST GULF FIRING UP-NOW INVEST 92L Reply with quote

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
231 PM CDT MON OCT 16 2006


3 Fatal

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KHGX/0610161931.nwus54.html
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2006 7:14 pm    Post subject: Severe weather claims 4 in Houston area, Houston Chronicle Reply with quote

Article and photo by the Houston Chronicle at http://www.chron.com

Severe weather claims 4 in Houston area

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4261569.html
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2006 7:28 pm    Post subject: Re: SOUTHWEST GULF FIRING UP-NOW INVEST 92L Reply with quote

Video of floods in Houston from KPRC News 2 chopper

http://www.click2houston.com/video/10086910/index.html

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