NHC finally reclassifies one of my tropical systems.....

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1119

Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2006 8:48 pm Post subject: UPPER LOW TO AID POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NEXT FRI-SAT............................The upper low which was responsible for our recent dry spell has entrained a tropical wave/ heat energy into it's circulation. This added heat has caused ridging to occur East of the center of circulation. This occurring in tandem with a flair up of convection underneath this ridging leads me to conclude that some type of development will occur in the Fri/Sat timeframe. The trof digging Southward along the East coast should pull this moisture slowly northward to a position off the Carolina coast at time of development. It is unclear whether this will be a true tropical system or some sort of hybrid. The only land areas which could be impacted are the Outer Banks, SE New England and Newfoundland. More on this system as it develops. Next Gulf activity at least 1 week away with next trof split and backing SW into Gulf. I PM'd Chris about a month ago discussing the upcoming hurricane season and despite overall preseason consensus of armeggedon..............I expressed my idea of a relatively quiet season. The logic is that a hurricane's main purpose (nature wise) is to take heat out of the tropics and redistribute it into the higher latitudes. In turn cold fronts would move equatoraly to transport cooler air southward.....this is how nature balances the atmosphere so we don't go to either extreme globally. My point was......we are coming off one of the warmest winters in recent record up north and the Atlantic Ocean for the most part is abnormally warm. Hurricanes distributing any more heat northward this year would just cause a further imbalance up North and cause more historical flooding as just experienced last week............With that logic in mind, it would make sense for a slow Western Atlantic hurricane season with the development more likely in the Western Caribean headed westward towards Mexico. This is because the Pacific is getting cooler as the Atlantic warms and would be a good magnet for heat distribution. Now I am not tropically inclined enough to bet against Dr Gray or the experts over at NHC who feel we will get throttled this summer, but I would not be surprised if this landfall season in the US is a bust.................Sorry so long winded Rolling Eyes Laughing
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL502006_Unnamed.pdf