Possible Tropical Development in Western Caribbean Next Week

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Good to see the rain has materialized down there as it always seems drought begats drought and somehow doesn't rain when it should............Anyway, deep trof along East Coast, slowing down of the jet stream, energy off the Florida coast............lot's of forecasting challenges in the next week or so. Here's my take...........trof along East Coast draws enrgy off Florida northward over next couple of days. This forms rare mid-may Noreaster which batters New England with heavy rain, cold wind and beach erosion this week. As this is happening, slowely we see a weakness in the atmosphere over the Western Carribean which over time next week develops a weak surface low. As the Noreaster pulls away, it lifts the trof out with it, but as is common as summer approaches, a piece of the trof breaks off and tails southward. Meanwhile, another trof builds into the central plains states next week and we have a good setup for the Carribean low to be ventilated by the East Coast trof and steered slowely towards Florida and the Eastern Gulf by the Central US trof later next week. At worst we have a pre- season tropical storm threat , but more likely we have a setup that could bring some very beneficial tropical rains to S. Florida...........Will update when I get a clue........... Laughing

Wthrwatcher · Posted: Thu May 17, 2007 8:40 am Post subject: Tropical Rains

This is some promising news. Thank you for the heads up. I am pretty new to this board but appreciate your comments. It is interesting to watch for these things to develop once you know what to look for. Here's to Rain !!

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2007

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 14N. THE GFS DOES
SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT
WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TRY
TO FORM. THERE EXISTS QUITE LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE NE PACIFIC ITCZ WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED
MONSOON TROUGH REACHING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG WITH LOW
TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF 15N ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS
ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WOULD LIKELY
ALLOW FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT..

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Well the wave of concern in the Caribbean has crossed Central America and now entered the Pacific so it is no longer a concern of Florida. The tail end of that trof that split is North of Cuba and that is causing showers off South Fl which could spread a bit further up the Peninsula over the holiday weekend....not a drought buster, but anything would help at this point. Will look again towards the Carribean later in the first week of June for another flair up. Still feel confident that Florida will be the most threatened US state this tropical season so prepare early and hope for the best...................

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Be very weary of this pattern as it screams development in the Western Carribean ......even up to the east/ central gulf...................If it were a month later I would say something would be imminent...........

ccstorms

Some of the forecasting models have been keying on the southwest Caribbean for a number of days and today we have a convective blowup right in that area. The SSD (Satellite Services Division) now has Floater Three focused on that area. It is not yet been designated as an 'Invest' by the NHC, but should the shower and thunderstorm activity continue overnight we may have an official Invest tomorrow. Visible satellite loops do show a cyclonic circulation beneath the convection. Should this develop, the best outcome for us would be a depression or weak tropical storm that soaks south Florida. We could sure use it!

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

MeteorologistTV

ccstorms

capecodder

Accuweather's top hurricane guy is suggestion that it will bring much needed rain to Florida, ultimately ending up off Hatteras . Something to watch for sure. Smile

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202