Possible Tropical Development in Western Caribbean Next Week

capecodder

Too bad it doesn't go a bit more to the West. Mississippi and Alabama are bone dry, and would welcome some moisture also.

ccstorms

Lake Okeechobee is at 9.0 feet. The low water record is 8.97 feet. We need all the rain we can get. A couple of slow moving tropical depressions would be a blessing. Very Happy

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LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Key to getting beneficial rains in SW FL this weekend..................Storm Center must pass to the West of you...........This storm setup should feature almost all of the heavy precip on the Eastern side of the low. In fact, should the low come up East of you (even by 20 miles), it may be a nice day. Should see development in the Western Caribbean by Thurs..........then Cuba and Florida by the weekend to the Carolinas by early next week. Again, as the trof in the central US slowely migrates eastward, it will draw the system northward and if it can catch the right quadrant jet stream on the east side of the trof, it could intensify it further as the storm turns NE (parallel) to the jet which enhances the storms spin. Whether it becomes tropical or hybrid, lets just hope it hangs west of the peninsula as long as possible before turning NE

ccstorms

Keep an eye on the Yucatan Channel. Wink

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LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Best guess now from me is the storm tracks just West of SW FL by Saturday and turns NE across the peninsula near Tampa/ New Port Richey. This gives you guys a general 1-2 inch area wide rain with localized amounts over 3 inches. Tropical storm force gusts will be possible in stronger bands rotating thru. This is the beginning of a big drought reversal this summer down there........

chris

Do you guys have any models for the next 3-4 days?
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ccstorms

The 18Z GFS takes a well defined low from the Yucatan Straits, across south Florida near Miami, and out to the northeast.

The 18Z Nam takes a 1004 MB low from the Yucatan Straits to just offshore southwest Florida.

The GFDL takes a 1008 MB low across central Florida.

The UKMET takes a weak low across central Florida.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

Throw out the 18z GFL..............garbage...............It's looking ugly down South of Cuba this morning............lets see if the convection holds today