Posted: Thu May 31, 2007 11:08 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement and recon flight set for Friday.
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1150 AM EDT THU MAY 31 2007
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF COZUMEL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FAVOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
A NON-TROPICAL LOW. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Posted: Thu May 31, 2007 1:11 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
Here's the first NHC model run with the Ukmet (blue) and the GFDL (red) included. you can throw out the western most tracks of the Clp5 and the LBAR which are totally lost as usual. At this time I would expect a track somewhere between the BAMD and the UKmet.
Posted: Thu May 31, 2007 1:49 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
reelweatherman wrote:
Is there any chance this strengthens significantly over the next couple days?
If this puppy wants to be a tropical cyclone it has to become one before it moves into the gulf. The conditions in the gulf (wind shear and marginal sst's) are not good for a pure tropical system to develop. This is likely to be a hybrid sub-tropical system which will be very wet on the east side and will still produce gale force winds and possibly severe weather such as Tornadoes and water spouts. Don't under estimate a sub-tropical system. They can really surprise you. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2882 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu May 31, 2007 7:25 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
Very cool loop. I was hoping to see a model run like that and I'm glad you posted. It looks like the boating/fishing forecast is out then.
Saturday:
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Windy, with a southeast wind between 17 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
SATURDAY
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET NEAR
THE COAST AND 6 TO 8 FEET. BAY AND INLAND WATERS ROUGH. SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
The good news is that the drought index should be a heck of a lot lower by early next week. _________________ Chris
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Posted: Thu May 31, 2007 7:27 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1005 MB...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 70 MI SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AT 19N87W. THIS LOW SITS ALONG AN ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NICARAGUA TO THE SRN GULF. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND FOR THAT REASON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER... MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING N/NE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ...A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR NON-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT FORMS...TROPICAL OR NON-TROPICAL ...ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS WRN CUBA AND S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 83W-86W. _________________ Chris
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