Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 5:41 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
I think they jumped the gun on down-grading..47 kts out at a buoy of GA.
Conditions at SKMG1 as of
(4:32 pm EDT)
2032 GMT on
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 47 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.64 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.12 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 68.5 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure
Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 6:53 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
capecodder wrote:
I think they jumped the gun on down-grading..47 kts out at a buoy of GA.
It has become extratropical in appearence now, but will probably have a greater impact in the Carolinas than Florida. I feel they should leave tropical systems as is until they are no longer a threat to land. When people hear of a downgrade they tend to let their guard down assuming the system is weakening. This system will get stronger as it approaches the mid-atlantic due to baroclinic processes and interaction with the SE ridge......Bottom line is a 50 mph wind from an extratropical storm will cause just as much problems as a 50 mph tropical storm wind will...............
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1523 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sat Jun 02, 2007 7:59 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
Agree, I don't think the NHC should ever downgrade a system until it's completely out of harms way. Wait until it dies or blows out to sea before releasing an advisory that it has weakened.. Any of you guys see this you tube vid? Strange if you ask me...I can't figure out the pink hair and wonder if he drank the bottle before filming himself.
Joined: Aug 06, 2005 Posts: 67 Location: St. James City, FL USA
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 10:16 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
I disagree. Either a storm meets the criteria for a certain "level" or it doesn't. If it doesn't meet the criteria for a tropical storm then it isn't a tropical storm. If it doesn't meet the criteria for a hurricane then it isn't a hurricane.
The idea of continuing to issue hurricane warnings for a tropical depression doesn't make any sense to me. The logic of this seems to be that we have to pretend that a storm is something it isn't so people will listen. That's fearmongering in my book. The problem with that is that it has the opposite effect you want to achieve, people stop listening. Heck, if we're going to do that then why not take it to its logical conclusion and just call every tropical system a cat 5 hurricane.
Bird flu anyone? _________________ St. James City, FL Weather
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Just another "white trash hick on Pine Island"*
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 11:38 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
You must remember that this is the United States of America. The U.S. is now a country where people are NOT responsible for their actions or even their inactions. It's always the fault of others. If you go out on a boat and get hammered by a storm it's not your fault that you didn't check the NWS boating forecast. It's not your fault you didn't listen to NOAA weather radio, or even have the radio on board. It's not your fault if you live in a coastal area that's prone to tidal flooding or a low lying area that floods when a Frog pees.
This constant whining about the NHC is getting very old. It's the National Hurricane Center, not the National Hurricane, Non-tropical storm, Nor'easter, summer thunderstorm, passing shower Center.The NHC forecasts and issues advisories on Tropical Cyclones. Period. Their responsibility ends when the tropical cyclone is no longer tropical. The Hydrometeorlogical Prediction Center and the local NWS offices take over when the NHC issues it's last advisory. It's not like all forecasts suddenly stop and nobody can get any info. Hell, the media jumps on any storm that has more than 20 mph winds and 18 drops of rain and has news crews reporting live on TV of the carnage caused by falling twigs.
Barry was a tropical system and now it's not. simple. not rocket science. If by chance Barry moves off-shore and reacquires tropical characteristics the NHC will begin advisories once again. All the info people need is readily available and there is no excuse not to know that information. Now I have to go and buy milk because the NHC didn't tell me I was running low. Wait until they see the nasty e-mail I sent. Maybe I should get extra water.... nah, they will tell me where to get it after the Hurricane. Gee, it's nice living in the USA. I don't even have to think.
Lou
Cape Coral,
Florida _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1523 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 4:07 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
Points well taken. Now that I think about the previous posts I have to agree. It makes sense to keep everybody updated and to upgrade/downgrade as needed. There have been a few times where I thought there shouldn't be a reason for a downgrade but we all make mistakes. Even with the best technology available today it still makes things extremely difficult. I give a lot of credit to the NHC on their forecasting and how they handle the tough calls. That's a job I would not want. In either case, with all the tools available, people should use there best judgement on how to handle severe weather. TV, Internet, Radio...it's all there to use and keep informed. Whether or not they use it is a different story...
By the way, I just checked the latest floater on Barry. What do you guys make of this last image capture? Should SC/NC have anything to worry about. Seems like an eye has formed. I'm just observing.
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2007 5:28 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
Barry is still a warm core system. The center is now over the water and is trying to band thunderstorms together. The pressure at Frying Pan shoals earlier was down to 29.34 and falling rapidly with sustained south winds at 23 kts, indicating there is probably a pressure below 29.30 west of it. I would expect the actual center to remain near the coast and not come back inland again. The fortunate thing is that the water temps are not warmer, though the center is drawing in air that is coming from water temps that are near 26 C ( gulfstream) and is warm core relative to the cooler environment.....................The point here is you dont get that type of banding and development with systems that do not have tropical origin and characteristics unless the core is warmed, which means the upward motion is due to air coming in and rising rapidly, rather than being caused by unstable lapse rates due to cool air aloft. Of course since we dont have a recon in here, we cant measure ............Remember Ernesto last year and how much damage it did up in NJ when it was classified as nothing with billions of dollars of damage................If it has a closed circulation, warm core, gales in at least one quadrant...................leave it be......The news only makes a big deal on the downgrades, people let their guards down after that.................wrong?....maybe..............a fact............yes. The whole mission of the NHC is to forecast tropical entities to protect life and property. If the reminents of an extratropical system are stronger then when it was named, people and property are harmed............how was the downgrade constructive?
Joined: Aug 06, 2005 Posts: 67 Location: St. James City, FL USA
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 9:34 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
SW46TER wrote:
If it has a closed circulation, warm core, gales in at least one quadrant...................leave it be......The news only makes a big deal on the downgrades, people let their guards down after that.................wrong?....maybe..............a fact............yes. The whole mission of the NHC is to forecast tropical entities to protect life and property. If the reminents of an extratropical system are stronger then when it was named, people and property are harmed............how was the downgrade constructive?
So lie to the public and tell them it's still a TS/hurricane/whatever when the data doesn't support that it is, because otherwise they won't listen?
That's an interesting approach to building credibility and public trust in a goverment agency.
I say again either it is a TD/TS/Hurricane or it isn't. If the NHC is supposed to lie to raise the public interest then why not just call everything a hurricane and be done with it. Armwaving, histrionics and fearmongering do not serve the public interest. If the NHC treated every storm with the amount of alarm you seem to be suggesting, it won't be long before no one is listening. _________________ St. James City, FL Weather
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Just another "white trash hick on Pine Island"*
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 11:19 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
Nobody is lying to the public. If it was already a named storm and still had winds over tropical storm force, was obviously headed back up into the coastal waters again and was forecast by the NHC to strengthen (albeit baroclinically)...............leave it be until out of harms way. Maybe call it extratropical storm Barry if it's so imortant to you to be technically (and politically) correct. You think the vast majority of the public understand (or care) anything above weather 101? Tey know if it has a name, it's bad. Do you think the average soccer mom in Eastern NC knows the difference between tropical.....sub-tropical.........or extratropical?......The bottom line is a named storm always stays in the news and a downgraded storm more often then not catches people up the coast off guard and more death and damage occur in these situations that in the places the named storm hit. Yeah, your way is better, let the big breasted weather girl on the 6pm news warn you that the unnamed , downgraded storm is going to flood out your home from 5 inches of rain or the tide is going to take out your beach house.............It's about continuity and safety!!!!! By the time they sometime rename it , it's often too late for many people who let their guard down.........I'm not saying to keep a name on a storm that is 300 miles inland with a 10 mph wind....
Joined: Aug 06, 2005 Posts: 67 Location: St. James City, FL USA
Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 2:08 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 92L- NOW BARRY
Now you're trying to turn this into a discussion about Barry specifically. If you want argue that the NHC had the numbers wrong I'll listen.
But that's not what I'm discussing here. I'm discussing your contention that the NHC should continue to classify a storm at a level that the data doesn't support. You can call it what you want but a deliberate mistruth is a lie. You can roll your eyes all you want about it but doing so won't change that fact.
And I have to say I find your comment on basing decisions on the facts as political correctness laughable. If anything your advocacy of protecting people from themselves reeks of PC.
I"ll drop this discussion there as it's on the verge of deteriorating into something I don't want to be part of. You have the last word. _________________ St. James City, FL Weather
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Just another "white trash hick on Pine Island"*
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In either case, with all the tools available, people should use there best judgement on how to handle severe weather. TV, Internet, Radio...it's all there to use and keep informed. Whether or not they use it is a different story... 
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