Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 7:48 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 94L-NW CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0015 UTC FRI JUN 15 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2882 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:46 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 94L-NW CARIBBEAN
Thanks for that update Lou. Lets hope we get a few inches of rain over the weekend like Barry. I see the forecast is pointing to Saturday for the best chance of rain at 60%. I'm sure once 94L moves further north that will change since we are still a few days out.
Tonights discussion:
Quote:
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE GENERALLY N OF 15N W OF 80W TO OVER CUBA AND TO
THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
INDUCED BY SEVERAL FACTORS. THE MOST PERSISTENT HAS BEEN
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN A SMALL UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA TO OVER W CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
HONDURAS COAST NEAR 15N88W THROUGH A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR
18N87W TO THE W TIP OF CUBA NEAR 22N83W. THERE ARE A FEW SMALL
MID/LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA BUT TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE E CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC. E OF 80W IS FREE OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
Joined: May 09, 2006 Posts: 232 Location: Bonita Springs Fl.
Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2007 8:48 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 94L-NW CARIBBEAN
Thanks for the updates. It looks like the shear is blowing the system almost sideways. Are the shear conditions supposed to "ease up" in the near future ? (assuming shear is causing what I see )
Joined: May 21, 2006 Posts: 187 Location: Southeast Florida
Posted: Fri Jun 15, 2007 12:24 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 94L-NW CARIBBEAN
94L has become better organized with more thunderstorm activity.My guess would be the Windsheer is starting to calm. Also expect that computer models to shift further east.
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Also expect that computer models to shift further east.
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