Posted: Mon Jul 02, 2007 5:31 pm Post subject: Central Atlantic Wave now Invest 96L
A low pressure center has formed from the tropical wave located in the central Atlantic near 8N & 38W. This low has a number of things working against it. It's early in the season for development in the central Atlantic. It's surrounded by dry air and the Saharan Air Layer is just to it's north. Water temps are borderline. Wind shear is about 20 kts. What it has in it's favor......it exists.... and could become the next Invest.
_________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Last edited by ccstorms on Tue Jul 03, 2007 4:32 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2007 4:39 am Post subject: Re: Central Atlantic Wave now Invest 96L
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0436 UTC TUE JUL 3 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2007 1:27 pm Post subject: Re: Central Atlantic Wave now Invest 96L
The wind shear is not overly bad but it's probably not going to get any better either. Here's the latest model run. Now at 25 kts and 1012 mb.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC TUE JUL 3 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2007 1:50 pm Post subject: Re: Central Atlantic Wave now Invest 96L
Regarding the models:
The 12Z CMC takes 96L into the caribbean as a weak low.
The GFDL kills off 96L in 72 hours.
The GFS shows very slow movement and weakens it after 3 days.
The HWRF takes 96L to near Puerto Rico in 5 days and very weak.
The Nogaps and Ukmet don't even "see" the system. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
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