97L? 2007 hurricane season blog...updated!

texascanecaster1

Update!: Yes 97l did form. And yes it is remotley possible that in the post season reanylisis it will be named an unamed subtropical storm. However the moment that this puerto rican wave met with the ull that prevented it from developing i said it would not develop tropically after that. And it didn't.
eek

Old entery:

Soon but not yet. The tropical disturbance in the antillies has become better organized today and surface pressure are falling in the area. However it is still not organized enough to be called a depresssion. Over the next 24 hours it should become better organzied. Right now shear is low in the area and there is no dust so conditions are favorable for development. Shear was orginally forecast to increase but i am doubtful. The source of said shear would be an upper level low but it will have to move south to affect the system. Right now the system continues to move west and away from the ull. If the movement of the disturbance changes than it will die or if the ull dips south but right now it look like the ull is actually moving north. If the system looks better overnight tonight or tommorrow then we may have something. I am making a new blog now with further information. Right now I give it a 25% chance of development into a tropical depression over the next 24 hours due to the uncertainty of where the ull is going. If it looks the same tommorrow or better i will raise the chances

chris

I'm not sure if this will develop but it might. Do you have any models on this possible invest? Even though it's extremely early I just checked further east at the Cape Verdes and there is a wave coming off of Africa as I type. This will likely die but wanted to point it out.

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SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

The real place you should be looking is the wave in the Eastern Carrib. which will be moving NW and eventually interacting with a stalled boundary off the SE coast early next week. As we are getting ever closer to August, odds of homegrown system are getting better...................Again.......Africa will not be a meaningful player for the US this year. Not that a system can't develop and make it across.......but it will be the exception and not the rule............SST's are approaching (and probably soon surpassing 2005 levels in the Gulf & NW Carrib. This is going to be the danger zone for the major development over the next 90 days................

texascanecaster1

the disturbanc is being ripped to shreds this morning i am dropping my chances for development to 5% or less. also i think sometimes next week we will see chantal were and exactly when i cannot say.
Shocked

texas.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

ccstorms

Agree with your east coast scenario Jeff. We also need to watch the southern portion of the wave (which is in stealth mode) as it continues west through the Caribbean. That upper low near Cuba should trigger a convective blowup as the wave enters the western Carib. It should move into the southwest gulf and things could get interesting. Not a high probability, but possible. We are approaching the meat and potatoes part of the Hurricane season which causes me to pay attention to the long shots as well as the big attention getting convective bursts that the media gets all excited about. Very Happy

I'm amazed at all the media attention given to tropical waves. I remember when the main stream media never mentioned a storm unless it had a name. Now they cover 'invests' like it's a major looming on the horizon. They look like this... nilly

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LOU
Cape Coral.
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texascanecaster1

ok guys the system is dead. however beven had this to say about it and they have scheueled a recon flight to the system on sunday afternon.... it is DEAD! why doesn't the nhc get that I give up

also i need to speak with chris on ethier storm chat which is live chat making the conversation easier: http://irc.hurricanehollow.org/
my question blog or here or jeffs blog as a problem has arisn with one of our members. In addition i have been seeing this happen quite often most of the time it is unwaranted but it involves people getting their posts pulled by other non admin members. Moonlight cowboy just had that happen to him so i would like to ask chris what to do about it. thank you.
nilly

texas.

Anole

No to be pedantic about it, well not exactly true since I am, but this isn't a blog. It's a forum. And in IMHO is much more appropriate than chat for disseminating information to the membership as a whole.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

texascanecaster1

anole i do not know. moonlightcowboy's posts were deletd and it is likley that was because some reported him for saying somethign or doing something inappropriate to an admin and then they axed the post but i didn't see him do anything wrong. now i know peopel can report posts that are not wrong to admins but if they are okay than the admin will not delete the post. that is why i am wondering if any of the admins including chris axed the post or if somebody else figured out a way to do it. Thank you guys for your time on this issue i am not involved in any other way other than i am trying to help moonlightcowboy out. Mr. Green