Joined: Jun 23, 2007 Posts: 125 Location: Se tx near houtson
Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 4:21 pm Post subject: Models continue to show ts formation heavy rain for texas.
The models are continuing to show a tropical storm forming in the atlantic over the next week and half and moving west into the carribean. Right now the tropical wave that could spawn this is looking better organized althoguh it still lacks a significatnt amount of convection. This is an area that needs to be watched but regardless of development would not impact the gulf coast for 2 weeks at least. Also a tropica disturbance in the gulf has or had the potential for some further development possibly into a weak tropical depression. This system regardless of development is expected to bring heavy rains to southeast texas that could result in a flooding problem. Also tchp in the tropics continues to rise as neutral to conditions in the nino areas persist. I have more information on this stuff on my new updated tropical weather disscusion on my blog. Please come and read it.
Joined: Jun 23, 2007 Posts: 125 Location: Se tx near houtson
Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 5:46 pm Post subject: Re: Models continue to show ts formation heavy rain for texas.
okay guys lots of activity now the gulf of mexico disturbance appears to be reorganizing around what might later become a common center:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2882 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 6:41 pm Post subject: Re: Models continue to show ts formation heavy rain for texas.
This system will only produce rain for TX IMO. I don't see it having enough time to ramp up to tropical status. _________________ Chris
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Joined: Jun 14, 2006 Posts: 263 Location: Cape Coral FL
Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: Models continue to show ts formation heavy rain for texas.
Chris, i would agree with you, this morning it was looking impressive but has become elongated since, due to sheer IMO. Not sure if sheer will relax in time for it to become depression.
Joined: Jun 23, 2007 Posts: 125 Location: Se tx near houtson
Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:32 pm Post subject: Re: Models continue to show ts formation heavy rain for texas.
chris that is a damn good question. the answer is there is no surface low just the trough of low pressure despite the new tropical storm like image on the last frame of the sattilite loop.
Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2007 8:54 pm Post subject: Re: Models continue to show ts formation heavy rain for texa
texascanecaster1 wrote:
The models are continuing to show a tropical storm forming in the atlantic over the next week and half and moving west into the carribean. Right now the tropical wave that could spawn this is looking better organized althoguh it still lacks a significatnt amount of convection. This is an area that needs to be watched but regardless of development would not impact the gulf coast for 2 weeks at least.
Is this storm coming directly across the Atlantic or will it vacation on Aruba for 4 days and 3 nights ?
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