Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 8:30 am Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC SAT JUL 28 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 9:00 am Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal
The first model run takes 98L out to the northeast. However it will matter where the surface low center forms, if one does form. The further south 98L is will determine whether it gets picked up and heads northeast. It's an interesting area that has been hanging around for about three days. The CMC model was the first to pick up on it. Just something to watch. Nothing to get excited about. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:24 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal
Once 98L gets out of the way (develop or not) the low developing in the Gulf along the old frontal boundary should lead to a good soaker for the peninsula (except for CC where Chris obviously has the defense shields up) _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 1:41 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal
The NHC is basing the possible recon flight on a projected movement of NNE which would bring it near Bermuda in two days. As I said earlier it will depend on if/where a surface low forms.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 281700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0100 PM EDT SAT 28 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-066
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR BERMUDA.
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 29/1730Z
D. 30N AND 71W
E. 29/1900Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION NEAR 32N AND 69W
FOR 30/1200Z OR INVEST AT 30/1800Z.
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:19 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal
SW46TER wrote:
Once 98L gets out of the way (develop or not) the low developing in the Gulf along the old frontal boundary should lead to a good soaker for the peninsula (except for CC where Chris obviously has the defense shields up)
I can't believe how far south into the Gulf that front is pushing. I don't see any way it can pull out without leaving trouble behind. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 2:24 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal
Sat Jul 28 15:19:23 EDT 2007
WHXX01 KWBC 281814
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC SAT JUL 28 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Sat Jul 28, 2007 3:09 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal
ccstorms wrote:
SW46TER wrote:
Once 98L gets out of the way (develop or not) the low developing in the Gulf along the old frontal boundary should lead to a good soaker for the peninsula (except for CC where Chris obviously has the defense shields up)
I can't believe how far south into the Gulf that front is pushing. I don't see any way it can pull out without leaving trouble behind.
For anything tropical to get going in the Gulf, 98L needs to get off the playing field, but that shouldn't stop a nice waterlogged low from soaking the peninsula _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
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