TD 3 now Chantal

ccstorms · Posted: Sun Jul 29, 2007 10:04 am Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1353 UTC SUN JUL 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070729 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070729 1200 070730 0000 070730 1200 070731 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.1N 72.7W 31.7N 72.2W 33.1N 71.4W 34.3N 69.8W
BAMD 30.1N 72.7W 32.0N 71.5W 34.1N 69.7W 36.4N 67.3W
BAMM 30.1N 72.7W 31.8N 71.8W 33.5N 70.5W 35.2N 68.3W
LBAR 30.1N 72.7W 32.2N 71.5W 34.5N 70.1W 37.0N 68.4W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070731 1200 070801 1200 070802 1200 070803 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.4N 67.7W 38.3N 60.7W 41.7N 50.5W 43.8N 35.8W
BAMD 38.7N 64.5W 44.6N 57.2W 52.2N 45.8W 58.1N 38.1W
BAMM 37.0N 65.6W 41.6N 58.2W 47.7N 46.0W 55.0N 31.9W
LBAR 39.4N 66.0W 44.8N 57.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 54KTS 53KTS 46KTS
DSHP 46KTS 54KTS 53KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.1N LONCUR = 72.7W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 27.3N LONM12 = 73.2W DIRM12 = 10DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 25.3N LONM24 = 73.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms · Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:24 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal

Latest sat pic on 98L shows exposed center. Winds 30 kts.

_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
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http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms · Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:27 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC MON JUL 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070730 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070730 1800 070731 0600 070731 1800 070801 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.4N 67.4W 36.6N 66.1W 38.5N 64.2W 39.9N 61.5W
BAMD 34.4N 67.4W 36.9N 65.5W 39.7N 62.8W 42.4N 58.5W
BAMM 34.4N 67.4W 36.7N 65.9W 38.9N 63.6W 41.0N 60.3W
LBAR 34.4N 67.4W 36.5N 65.5W 39.1N 63.2W 41.9N 60.0W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070801 1800 070802 1800 070803 1800 070804 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 41.0N 58.4W 41.8N 51.2W 41.4N 44.3W 41.9N 40.3W
BAMD 45.7N 52.8W 54.4N 37.0W 62.3N 29.7W 63.6N 28.6W
BAMM 43.2N 55.9W 48.2N 42.2W 55.8N 24.9W 62.5N 10.4W
LBAR 45.1N 54.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 57KTS 57KTS 45KTS 22KTS
DSHP 57KTS 57KTS 45KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 34.4N LONCUR = 67.4W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 31.7N LONM12 = 68.6W DIRM12 = 50DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 30.4N LONM24 = 71.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms · Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:29 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal

_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms · Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:14 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal

Invest 98L is now TD 3 as a TCFA was issued. The NHC could go with a sub-tropical depression designation.

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVLANTMETOCCEN//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 301130Z JUL 07//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32.8N 67.7W TO 36.6N 63.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 40 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 32.7N 67.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST HAS SHOWN SOME DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURSTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. CURRENTLY, THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXISTS
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THERE IS STRONG 20 TO 40 KNOT
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY SHEAR PRESENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
OBSERVED NEAR 81F/27C.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 311200Z.//
_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms · Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:17 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal

_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

texascanecaster1 · Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:17 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal

umm. Lou how is that possible? i never saw any advisories for a td come up on the nhc website and non of the news station said anything. Did it last that briefly before dieing? i am confused. Also guys when i was talkin about 99l earlier i wasn't wishcasting or making apocoliptic forecasts. It is in favorable conditions all it needs is lots of convection to become a td.

ccstorms · Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:20 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal

Mon Jul 30 22:04:31 EDT 2007
WHXX01 KWBC 310156

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0156 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE THREE (AL032007) 20070731 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070731 0000 070731 1200 070801 0000 070801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.5N 66.5W 37.7N 65.4W 39.5N 63.6W 40.6N 61.0W
BAMD 35.5N 66.5W 38.1N 64.7W 41.0N 61.5W 43.7N 56.4W
BAMM 35.5N 66.5W 37.9N 65.2W 40.1N 62.8W 42.1N 58.9W
LBAR 35.5N 66.5W 38.1N 64.7W 41.0N 62.0W 44.1N 57.5W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 42KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070802 0000 070803 0000 070804 0000 070805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 41.4N 58.5W 41.5N 53.7W 41.2N 50.7W 41.8N 46.8W
BAMD 46.9N 48.7W 54.7N 27.9W 62.5N 18.2W 65.0N 20.0W
BAMM 44.1N 54.0W 48.7N 36.8W 56.0N 17.5W 62.9N 10.0W
LBAR 47.7N 49.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 51KTS 40KTS 0KTS
DSHP 52KTS 51KTS 40KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.5N LONCUR = 66.5W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 32.7N LONM12 = 67.6W DIRM12 = 24DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 31.0N LONM24 = 70.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms · Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:32 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal

The burst of convection right over the center is what did the trick.

_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/

ccstorms · Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 10:45 pm Post subject: Re: TD 3 now Chantal

000
WTNT23 KNHC 310241
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007
0300 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 66.0W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 66.0W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 66.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 38.2N 64.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 42.5N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.5N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 52.5N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 58.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 61.0N 23.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
_________________
Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

http://wxman911-louwxwatch.blogspot.com/