Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:35 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
For those not familiar with this site, along the left side column you will find a section listed as 'Tropics'. In that listing you will find 'floaters'. Floaters are closeup satellite pics and loops of active tropical systems. They are called FLOATERS because they will be moved to follow the systems. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Joined: May 21, 2006 Posts: 187 Location: Southeast Florida
Posted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 11:50 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
There's certainly some dry air around 99L.I doubt this will inhibit Development much.This System also looks very impressive on the Vis Satellite .Likely a TD by the end of Today.
Let me go on record here (against the expertise of TCC) that 99L is going to be no big deal. In fact, another wave SW of Cape Verde has a much better chance of developing. Why? 99L will be tracking too far South in the Carrib. this time of year to develop. There is still an upper level heat low over Northern South America that will likely be the demise of whatever attempt 99l has of developing. Later in the season as solar radiation lessens and land masses begin to cool, the ULL will gradually lose it's grip..........but not now............Sorry TCC The wave SW of CV should track further Northward so I will eagerly await your next apocalyptic forecast......... _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Let me go on record here (against the expertise of TCC) that 99L is going to be no big deal. In fact, another wave SW of Cape Verde has a much better chance of developing. Why? 99L will be tracking too far South in the Carrib. this time of year to develop. There is still an upper level heat low over Northern South America that will likely be the demise of whatever attempt 99l has of developing. Later in the season as solar radiation lessens and land masses begin to cool, the ULL will gradually lose it's grip..........but not now............Sorry TCC The wave SW of CV should track further Northward so I will eagerly await your next apocalyptic forecast.........
Agree! and it will all be a moot point unless 99L develops some deep convection that persists. That SA heat ridge is not famous for the destruction of TC's for no reason. It's a real killer even though sometimes a few can slip through before mid August like Charley, Dennis, and Emily. But many more meet their demise. I don't see any of the global models getting excited about 99L except the GFDL which develops 99L into a Hurricane. The Canadian develops it some, but not that much. The GFS doesn't care. The Nogaps and Ukmet don't even 'see' it at this point in time. So we wait. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
CC and SW, although I agree with you on our wishcasting friend, 99L is looking impressive so far. But I do always look for your outlook before I form my own. I am fairly new to this and and try to take into account all the varibles before I form my own take on storms. I always miss some variable that you 2 experenced gentleman put forth. Keep up the great work and thank your for IT. Jeff
For what it's worth at this early stage, the HWRF has joined the GFDL with development and is showing 99L to be south of Jamaica in 5 days at tropical storm strength. The GFDL has it at Hurricane strength in 5 days south of the Dominican Republic. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
CC and SW, although I agree with you on our wishcasting friend, 99L is looking impressive so far. But I do always look for your outlook before I form my own. I am fairly new to this and and try to take into account all the varibles before I form my own take on storms. I always miss some variable that you 2 experenced gentleman put forth. Keep up the great work and thank your for IT. Jeff
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