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Cape Coral - Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - INVEST 99L
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INVEST 99L
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This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Cape Coral - Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2007 Hurricane Season
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ccstorms
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Posts: 6093
Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:58 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1904 UTC MON JUL 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070730 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070730 1800 070731 0600 070731 1800 070801 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 47.1W 10.8N 50.5W 11.9N 54.0W 12.8N 57.5W
BAMD 9.8N 47.1W 10.7N 49.6W 11.5N 52.0W 12.0N 54.3W
BAMM 9.8N 47.1W 10.6N 49.6W 11.4N 52.0W 11.9N 54.2W
LBAR 9.8N 47.1W 10.4N 49.5W 11.4N 52.0W 12.1N 54.6W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070801 1800 070802 1800 070803 1800 070804 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 61.5W 15.4N 70.9W 16.6N 80.7W 17.2N 88.9W
BAMD 12.3N 56.6W 12.8N 61.3W 13.5N 66.2W 14.4N 70.7W
BAMM 12.5N 56.6W 13.3N 61.5W 14.2N 66.9W 15.5N 72.2W
LBAR 12.6N 57.3W 13.2N 63.1W 13.9N 69.0W 13.0N 74.0W
SHIP 43KTS 61KTS 71KTS 76KTS
DSHP 43KTS 61KTS 71KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 44.7W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 42.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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reelweatherman
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 3:59 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

I agree with you Jeff. Its great to have some real professionals on this site!
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 4:02 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote


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MeteorologistTV
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 5:10 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

Lou whats your take on the High pressure over Western Cuba? If it remains intact later in the week this Storm is heading for some Tortillas on the Mexican Coast and wouldn't be a worry for the U.S.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 30, 2007 6:08 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

Yes but 99L is at least 8 days out. My concern would be to have a TC to our southwest and have another in the endless series of east coast troughs set up again. However we don't have a TC to worry about yet and forecasting that far out is not very accurate. I have always HATED having a TC to our south or southwest. When southwest Florida gets slammed it's always from a system in that area. Donna, Charley, and Wilma to name a few.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 9:27 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

25 kts 1009mb



TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070731 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070731 1200 070801 0000 070801 1200 070802 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 50.4W 12.2N 54.0W 13.3N 57.8W 14.5N 62.1W
BAMD 11.0N 50.4W 11.9N 52.8W 12.5N 55.4W 12.9N 58.0W
BAMM 11.0N 50.4W 11.9N 52.9W 12.5N 55.7W 13.1N 58.6W
LBAR 11.0N 50.4W 11.8N 53.0W 12.4N 55.9W 12.9N 58.8W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070802 1200 070803 1200 070804 1200 070805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.7N 66.8W 17.7N 77.0W 18.8N 86.0W 19.3N 92.9W
BAMD 13.2N 60.7W 13.6N 65.8W 14.1N 71.3W 14.2N 76.4W
BAMM 13.5N 61.7W 14.5N 68.2W 15.7N 75.1W 16.4N 82.0W
LBAR 13.3N 61.9W 13.8N 68.3W 14.7N 74.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 56KTS 66KTS 71KTS 75KTS
DSHP 56KTS 66KTS 71KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 50.4W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 49.0W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 45.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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reelweatherman
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:41 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

NHC says Invest 99L is less organized. Is this just a minor setback for this system or the end??
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:12 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

reelweatherman wrote:
NHC says Invest 99L is less organized. Is this just a minor setback for this system or the end??


They also say that it still has the potential to become a tropical depression in the next few days. Based on that I wouldn't write it off just yet. While it doesn't look good right now that doesn't mean it won't refire later today. These developing systems often pulse up and down and just when you think it's dead it can go through a big convective explosion. The key for development is to sustain the convection because without it a 'closed' surface low won't form. 99L has been showing a good mid level circulation for several days and as long as it can maintain that circulation it should be watched. 99L will continue to chug along trailing it's parent wave and could even spin up 3 or 4 days down the road in the vicinity of the central Carib.
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MeteorologistTV
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 11:30 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

The Dry Air is beginning take its effects on 99L's Convection.
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chris
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 6:49 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

Lou,
I know this has nothing to do with 99L but do you know where I can find the Sat loop for Africa that updates every half hour or on the hour? SSD updates every 6 hours and wanted something a little more up to date. I think I asked you this before but can't seem to find it in the forum. Their is a really nice wave coming off of the African coast that I would like to follow.
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