TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1904 UTC MON JUL 30 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Lou whats your take on the High pressure over Western Cuba? If it remains intact later in the week this Storm is heading for some Tortillas on the Mexican Coast and wouldn't be a worry for the U.S.
Yes but 99L is at least 8 days out. My concern would be to have a TC to our southwest and have another in the endless series of east coast troughs set up again. However we don't have a TC to worry about yet and forecasting that far out is not very accurate. I have always HATED having a TC to our south or southwest. When southwest Florida gets slammed it's always from a system in that area. Donna, Charley, and Wilma to name a few. _________________ Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:27 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
25 kts 1009mb
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
NHC says Invest 99L is less organized. Is this just a minor setback for this system or the end??
They also say that it still has the potential to become a tropical depression in the next few days. Based on that I wouldn't write it off just yet. While it doesn't look good right now that doesn't mean it won't refire later today. These developing systems often pulse up and down and just when you think it's dead it can go through a big convective explosion. The key for development is to sustain the convection because without it a 'closed' surface low won't form. 99L has been showing a good mid level circulation for several days and as long as it can maintain that circulation it should be watched. 99L will continue to chug along trailing it's parent wave and could even spin up 3 or 4 days down the road in the vicinity of the central Carib. _________________ Lou
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Lou,
I know this has nothing to do with 99L but do you know where I can find the Sat loop for Africa that updates every half hour or on the hour? SSD updates every 6 hours and wanted something a little more up to date. I think I asked you this before but can't seem to find it in the forum. Their is a really nice wave coming off of the African coast that I would like to follow. _________________ Chris
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