Joined: Jun 23, 2007 Posts: 125 Location: Se tx near houtson
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:19 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
hmm. looks m like 72hours was the magic number. Guys it appears if present trend persits today we will have td number 4 this afternoon. even if convection dies this morning it will be back tenfold tonight. If it persits then the noaa plane should find something.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:50 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
Latest visible image showing a good burst of convection. This increase in the showers and thunderstorms will have to continue and 99L will have to show signs of organization/structure before recon is sent out.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:07 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
Wed Aug 1 09:49:32 EDT 2007
WHXX01 KWBC 011254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC WED AUG 1 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:02 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
000
NOUS42 KNHC 011500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-070
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1600Z
B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST
C. 02/1400Z
D. 14.0N 65.5W
E. 02/1500Z TO 02/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 03/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: THIS MISSION ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED FOR 02/1200Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 02/1600Z. _________________ LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:27 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SQUALLS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NOVA SCOTIA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED.
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OLD FRONTAL
ZONE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 2:23 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1912 UTC WED AUG 1 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 5:32 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
texascanecaster1 wrote:
it would appear that it almost time. if it becomes a td i will psot right a way plus a new emergenyc tropical blog on my blog.
Let me get this straight.................you are posting an EMERGENCY TROPICAL BLOG if this system becomes a DEPRESSION out by the Winward Islands??? _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
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