INVEST 99L

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

I think a hemmoroidal flair up would be more of an emergency than anything 99L could pose ............................................. Laughing

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No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once

chris · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:14 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L

713
ABNT20 KNHC 012113
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON THURSDAY IF NECESSARY. NUMEROUS
SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Chris
Site Administrator
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ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:45 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

99L will be entering tropical storm hell in about 24 hrs or so. Enjoy it while it lasts TCC.............maybe if it turns WNW you may see some cirrus clouds in Houston by late next week................ Wink

_________________
No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once

texascanecaster1 · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:46 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L

look like its reorganizing. anyway goonight guys.

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 6:48 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L

Massive convective burst with cloud tops at -80C. Very Impressive.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:21 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L

Thu Aug 2 09:04:29 EDT 2007
WHXX01 KWBC 021250

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC THU AUG 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070802 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070802 1200 070803 0000 070803 1200 070804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 65.0W 14.0N 69.6W 15.6N 74.8W 17.1N 79.7W
BAMD 12.6N 65.0W 13.3N 68.5W 14.1N 72.0W 14.9N 75.6W
BAMM 12.6N 65.0W 13.7N 69.2W 14.8N 73.6W 16.2N 78.0W
LBAR 12.6N 65.0W 13.2N 69.1W 14.1N 73.4W 15.1N 77.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070804 1200 070805 1200 070806 1200 070807 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 84.2W 20.1N 91.9W 21.8N 96.9W 23.7N 100.2W
BAMD 15.5N 79.4W 16.2N 86.8W 16.3N 93.6W 15.9N 99.3W
BAMM 17.3N 82.2W 19.0N 89.7W 20.4N 95.3W 21.2N 99.5W
LBAR 16.4N 81.7W 19.1N 88.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 47KTS 63KTS 76KTS 85KTS
DSHP 47KTS 46KTS 47KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 65.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 59.9W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 56.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

Nolesjeff · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:24 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L

I just looked at last QS, doesnt appear to be closed off yet. Is that correct? If not, what are the chances of it closing with all that convection? Also isnt that area(proximity to SA) a graveyard for tropical systems? Thanks in advance for response.

ccstorms · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:06 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L

Nolesjeff · Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:21 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L

Thank you sir