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Cape Coral - Southwest Florida Weather :: View topic - INVEST 99L
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INVEST 99L
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This forum is locked: you cannot post, reply to, or edit topics.   This topic is locked: you cannot edit posts or make replies.    Cape Coral - Southwest Florida Weather Forum Index -> 2007 Hurricane Season
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SW46TER
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 6:21 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

I think a hemmoroidal flair up would be more of an emergency than anything 99L could pose ............................................. Laughing
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chris
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:14 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

713
ABNT20 KNHC 012113
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON THURSDAY IF NECESSARY. NUMEROUS
SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:45 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

SW46TER wrote:
I think a hemmoroidal flair up would be more of an emergency than anything 99L could pose ............................................. Laughing


especially if it needs recon. nilly
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LOU
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SW46TER
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:33 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

99L will be entering tropical storm hell in about 24 hrs or so. Enjoy it while it lasts TCC.............maybe if it turns WNW you may see some cirrus clouds in Houston by late next week................ Wink
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texascanecaster1
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Joined: Jun 23, 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:46 pm    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

look like its reorganizing. anyway goonight guys.
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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 6:48 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

Massive convective burst with cloud tops at -80C. Very Impressive.


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ccstorms
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 8:21 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

Thu Aug 2 09:04:29 EDT 2007
WHXX01 KWBC 021250

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC THU AUG 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070802 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070802 1200 070803 0000 070803 1200 070804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 65.0W 14.0N 69.6W 15.6N 74.8W 17.1N 79.7W
BAMD 12.6N 65.0W 13.3N 68.5W 14.1N 72.0W 14.9N 75.6W
BAMM 12.6N 65.0W 13.7N 69.2W 14.8N 73.6W 16.2N 78.0W
LBAR 12.6N 65.0W 13.2N 69.1W 14.1N 73.4W 15.1N 77.7W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070804 1200 070805 1200 070806 1200 070807 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 84.2W 20.1N 91.9W 21.8N 96.9W 23.7N 100.2W
BAMD 15.5N 79.4W 16.2N 86.8W 16.3N 93.6W 15.9N 99.3W
BAMM 17.3N 82.2W 19.0N 89.7W 20.4N 95.3W 21.2N 99.5W
LBAR 16.4N 81.7W 19.1N 88.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 47KTS 63KTS 76KTS 85KTS
DSHP 47KTS 46KTS 47KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 65.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 59.9W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 56.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Nolesjeff
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:24 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

I just looked at last QS, doesnt appear to be closed off yet. Is that correct? If not, what are the chances of it closing with all that convection? Also isnt that area(proximity to SA) a graveyard for tropical systems? Thanks in advance for response.
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ccstorms
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Location: Cape Coral

PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:06 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

Nolesjeff wrote:
I just looked at last QS, doesnt appear to be closed off yet. Is that correct? If not, what are the chances of it closing with all that convection? Also isnt that area(proximity to SA) a graveyard for tropical systems? Thanks in advance for response.


If it can maintain the convection there is a good chance of a closed surface low forming. Convective bursts that are as strong as we are seeing this morning will form a mid-level circulation. It's now a question of it getting to the surface. It is in the area of the Carib that is not hospitable to TC's but it's never a sure thing that the usually negative conditions will always be there or be strong enough to prevent development. 99L is trying real hard. Very Happy
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Nolesjeff
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:21 am    Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L Reply with quote

Thank you sir
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