Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:21 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
I think a hemmoroidal flair up would be more of an emergency than anything 99L could pose ............................................. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 1471 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:14 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
713
ABNT20 KNHC 012113
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON THURSDAY IF NECESSARY. NUMEROUS
SQUALLS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:45 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
SW46TER wrote:
I think a hemmoroidal flair up would be more of an emergency than anything 99L could pose .............................................
especially if it needs recon. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
99L will be entering tropical storm hell in about 24 hrs or so. Enjoy it while it lasts TCC.............maybe if it turns WNW you may see some cirrus clouds in Houston by late next week................ _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 9:21 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
Thu Aug 2 09:04:29 EDT 2007
WHXX01 KWBC 021250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC THU AUG 2 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Joined: Jun 14, 2006 Posts: 250 Location: Maiden NC
Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 10:24 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
I just looked at last QS, doesnt appear to be closed off yet. Is that correct? If not, what are the chances of it closing with all that convection? Also isnt that area(proximity to SA) a graveyard for tropical systems? Thanks in advance for response.
Posted: Thu Aug 02, 2007 11:06 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 99L
Nolesjeff wrote:
I just looked at last QS, doesnt appear to be closed off yet. Is that correct? If not, what are the chances of it closing with all that convection? Also isnt that area(proximity to SA) a graveyard for tropical systems? Thanks in advance for response.
If it can maintain the convection there is a good chance of a closed surface low forming. Convective bursts that are as strong as we are seeing this morning will form a mid-level circulation. It's now a question of it getting to the surface. It is in the area of the Carib that is not hospitable to TC's but it's never a sure thing that the usually negative conditions will always be there or be strong enough to prevent development. 99L is trying real hard. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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