Watching the Gulf

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:36 am Post subject: Watching the Gulf

The Gulf is looking interesting this morning. There is a stalled front north of Tampa with a 1010 mb low south of Pensacola. The front should slowly drift south to central Florida and some of the models are forecasting the formation of a deepening surface low in the vicinity of the current 1010 low. This type of setup can create tropical development if all the pieces of the puzzle come together. While none of the models are really excited there are enough 'hints' to get my attention. Even without development we can see a 'training' of showers and thunderstorms continue to move onshore over our area through tomorrow. This could be a very wet setup and some areas that are within the training bands could get very excessive rainfall amounts. It will all depend on exactly where the front sits and where the bands of rain come ashore. Just several miles can mean a great difference in the rainfall amounts.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

reelweatherman · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:51 am Post subject: Re: Watching the Gulf

I wonder if anyone knows if any storm has developed that close to the coast, historically? I can't remember one recently.

alorfi · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 8:58 am Post subject: Re: Watching the Gulf

I agree we are in for substantial rainfall thru Thursday. However, it seems that GFS always overplays the establishment of circulation over stalled fronts. I've been burnt by GFS on that many times. I think this front will pretty much wash out as the high builds north and east on Friday. Even though it will be drier with the increased subsidence, at least we'll have a SE wind flow for some meaningful convective activity along the coastal communities this weekend. A return to some big time heat though.

texascanecaster1 · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 9:12 am Post subject: Re: Watching the Gulf

yes ccstroms there is a surface low there with a pressure of 1010 millibars listed on the mpas this morning under the convection. It formed along this dieng frontal boundary overnight. It could become a td very very quickly with conditions the way they are.

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:05 am Post subject: Re: Watching the Gulf

. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 02/1730Z
D. 29.0N 88.0W
E. 02/1745Z TO 02/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 03/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 03/1030Z
D. 30.0N 88.0W
E. 03/1045Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
5. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:25 am Post subject: Re: Watching the Gulf

(snipped to only show the part about the Gulf.)

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN OLD FRONTAL
ZONE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN[/b]
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 11:41 am Post subject: Re: Watching the Gulf

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

reelweatherman · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:27 pm Post subject: Re: Watching the Gulf

This looks like a great rain event for us.

Wthrwatcher · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:44 pm Post subject: Re: Watching the Gulf

Wow..welcome to August. Activity looks like it is really ramping up out in the warm waters. Thanks for the heads up. More rain appears imminent for us here in SW Fl. That is ok by me, so far.

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 01, 2007 1:51 pm Post subject: Re: Watching the Gulf

Floater 3 is now on the northeast Gulf.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html