2007 Hurricane Estimate Lowered

Twocapes · New Member Joined: Jul 31, 2007 Posts: 9

Based on the news below, do you think the insurance companies will refund any money - Shocked

. Last year our policy increased $700 and this year $800 - $2222/yr now for a small 1200 square foot house and that doesn't include flood insurance plus using $1,000 deductible.

FORT COLLINS, Colo. - Hurricane researcher William Gray lowered his 2007 forecast slightly Friday, calling for 15 named storms, with eight becoming hurricanes and four becoming intense.

On May 31, at the outset of hurricane season, Gray had called for 17 named storms and nine hurricanes, five of them intense.

"We've lowered our forecast from our May predictions because of slightly less favorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic," said Philip Klotzbach, a member of Gray's team at Colorado State University.

The new forecast calls for three named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane in August; five named storms, four hurricanes and two intense hurricanes in September; and five named storms, two hurricanes and one intense hurricane in October and November combined.

FairWthrGal

Suuure ... they'll do that about the same time property taxes are reduced to meet market value Razz

ccstorms

Well, he started at 17, now has dropped down to 15 and probably will drop it again to 13 on September 1. Very Happy

Maybe by Oct 1 he will be down to 11 and we wind up with a total of 8. Sounds good to me. One can only hope. Regarding the insurance.....As soon as Gulf and Hurricane are mentioned in the same sentence the Oil futures go beserk and the Insurance Company executives look like this

:holyshit:
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

alorfi

LOL, Lou. I know you think I'm a hack with regard to my opinions about government forecasters, so I know you'll take this with a grain of salt: NONE of the private forecasters had the ridiculous TC predictions of the NHC either last year or this year. We all knew this downward departure was in the offing back in June. None of the knowledgeable folks were buying those crazy numbers. Yes, we'll have an active late-August thru October, but the initial "forecasts" were generated by government folks for numerous reasons.

Al_Florida

Insurance Company executives will look more like this:

as sounds of "Ka-ching!" could be heard throughout Florida.

capeskywatcher · Posted: Sat Aug 04, 2007 2:31 pm Post subject: Could the UK Met be right?

I am not as knowledgable as many of you are, so please forgive me if this is not relevant to a serious discussion. I heard about a new global model the UK Met is using to predict the number of storms for the year. If they are right, we have 9 named storms left this year. I realize it is new and relatively untested, but does anyone have an opinion about it or more information?

Nolesjeff

Personally I think any advancements are great, I have also seen this in action a couple of times this year. Looks to be no better or worse then the others. Time will tell how accurate it is. They seem to all be good a 1 specific thing, whether it be tracking small storms, or better at forcasting precip. they all have their quirk which I am still learning about. Most of the more experienced forecasters have learned these quirks and take a little from all the models to develop their forecast IMHO>

capeskywatcher · Posted: Sun Aug 05, 2007 8:57 am Post subject: Thanks

Thanks for the reply....

texascanecaster1

so with the estimate lowered we are suppossed to expect a total of 15-16 named storms. I still think that there will be quite a few major hurricanes more than 4 I think but overall storm totals I think are right on. The reason for more intense hurricanes is la nina setting in finally and warming ssts in the upper carribean and gom which would allow for rapid intensifacation. Right now when they say less favorable conditions they are refering to the supressed atmosphere that has been persisting in the tropics for the last month and a half. This has been due to the formation of several ulls and those threee frontal troughs that have pushed out into the tropics over the past month and a half. They have created unfavorable conditions for formation. However that lalst trough we had i think was the last trough so this pattern should end in the next few days. Once that happens things will have a lot easier time at developing beyond blobs.

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202