Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 771 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 10:23 pm Post subject: Tropical wave this weekend
Latest from the nws - we maybe under the influence of a tropical wave this weekend. Nothing appears imminent on satillite. Also drying frontal boundary may also influence the weather this weekend (as predicted by sw storms a couple of days ago)
Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2007 5:39 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical wave this weekend
Wave will become tropical depression as it heads towards Northern Yucatan. If it can head a bit further north and not interact with the Yucatan too much, it should become a tropical storm in the Gulf as it heads towards Northern Mexico or South Texas Coast. Not ideal conditions but warm water and ventilating trof should overcome any hostility _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Joined: Jun 20, 2005 Posts: 771 Location: Cape Coral, Fl.
Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2007 6:06 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical wave this weekend
Like your new signiture quote
However, the difference between you and me is: if I'm wrong about the weather, I'm still (self) employed
What about the upper level winds/wind sheer factor?
And what role if any will the current commonly referred to RING OF FIRE stagnet HIGH play in the development? Will it stay in place till the weekend and be the main steering mechanism for the wave?
Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2007 6:28 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical wave this weekend
There will be some shear to deal with but if the wave can move North of due West (wnw-nw) it will get close enough to the trof that it gets ventilated. Then as the trof splits away the ridge should build over top of the system and away to the races we go. It all depends on interaction with the Yucatan. It is feasible if it only skims it going by that it could become a hurricane before TX/MX. I don't like the odds of that now though. When I see an actual center form it will be easier to give a better opinion. Now, from the book of TCC my initial probability would be TD: 60% TS: 45% Cane: 15%......Thats my opinion and I'm sticking to it (until my next opinion ) _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2007 7:34 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical wave this weekend
SW46TER wrote:
There will be some shear to deal with but if the wave can move North of due West (wnw-nw) it will get close enough to the trof that it gets ventilated. Then as the trof splits away the ridge should build over top of the system and away to the races we go. It all depends on interaction with the Yucatan. It is feasible if it only skims it going by that it could become a hurricane before TX/MX. I don't like the odds of that now though. When I see an actual center form it will be easier to give a better opinion. Now, from the book of TCC my initial probability would be TD: 60% TS: 45% Cane: 15%......Thats my opinion and I'm sticking to it (until my next opinion )
Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2007 8:29 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical wave this weekend
Yeah, the Canadian agreeing with me is usually not good tropically. If you would trust it over the course of a season, a good chunk of our coastline would be mangled.. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Joined: Jun 08, 2005 Posts: 2882 Location: Cape Coral, Florida
Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2007 9:00 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical wave this weekend
Now would this be considered homegrown if anything were to happen at its current location? _________________ Chris
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Posted: Thu Aug 09, 2007 9:12 pm Post subject: Re: Tropical wave this weekend
chris wrote:
Now would this be considered homegrown if anything were to happen at its current location?
Yes, although I was watching this wave out past 60W earlier in the week, by the time it becomes a TD (from my lips to Gods ears ) it will be in an area both Lou and I would consider homegrown. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
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