INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

ccstorms · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:43 am Post subject: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

I expect this system to become Invest 90L. It is looking pretty good this morning. The models are still in agreement and calling for development.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:22 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

Wthrwatcher · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:30 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

That map clearly shows that we need to start paying a bit more attention . I am sure the folks down in the islands are. That big zig-zag H line from east to west may be around for awhile , and it looks like the real wave parade is about to begin. Appreciate all this info. I am going to pledge a couple bucks right now as a token of my appreciation. Thanks for keeping us informed CC (and everybody else including the Holiday Inn Express guy Wink

) Jim

ccstorms · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:47 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

NHC has it at 1006 mb.

from 2pm discussion.
"AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W AND 19W
SOUTH OF 20N...STILL EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A 1006 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N ALONG THE WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND
22W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH."
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:13 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

12Z Uk run.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.8N 25.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 12.08.2007 11.8N 25.1W WEAK

00UTC 13.08.2007 12.2N 28.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.08.2007 12.2N 32.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 14.08.2007 12.6N 35.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 14.08.2007 13.3N 39.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.08.2007 14.1N 42.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 15.08.2007 15.1N 47.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.08.2007 15.7N 51.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 16.08.2007 16.5N 55.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.08.2007 17.6N 59.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.08.2007 19.0N 63.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:06 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

The strong wave is now Invest 90L. Here's the first model run.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

ccstorms · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:11 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

25 kts and 1007 MB.

WHXX01 KWBC 111926

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1926 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070811 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070811 1800 070812 0600 070812 1800 070813 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.7N 20.3W 11.6N 22.8W 12.5N 25.9W 13.3N 29.9W
BAMD 10.7N 20.3W 10.7N 24.1W 10.7N 27.7W 10.8N 30.9W
BAMM 10.7N 20.3W 11.2N 23.4W 11.7N 26.9W 12.4N 30.2W
LBAR 10.7N 20.3W 10.7N 23.7W 11.1N 27.7W 11.5N 31.7W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070813 1800 070814 1800 070815 1800 070816 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 34.5W 15.2N 43.9W 14.5N 52.1W 14.0N 57.7W
BAMD 11.2N 33.8W 12.7N 39.7W 15.1N 46.6W 17.4N 53.9W
BAMM 13.2N 33.9W 14.5N 42.3W 14.6N 51.1W 13.5N 57.8W
LBAR 11.9N 36.0W 13.2N 43.7W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 40KTS 47KTS 50KTS 55KTS
DSHP 40KTS 47KTS 50KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 20.3W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 17.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 12.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

texascanecaster1 · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 4:39 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

To go with lous information:
From the nhc as of 5:00 eastern pacific daylihgt time:
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CUBA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AT IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

And the gfs cyclogenisis model paired with forecast track:

ccstorms · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:46 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC SUN AUG 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070812 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070812 0000 070812 1200 070813 0000 070813 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 20.8W 13.0N 23.8W 14.1N 27.6W 15.2N 32.3W
BAMD 11.8N 20.8W 12.2N 25.0W 12.5N 29.2W 12.8N 33.2W
BAMM 11.8N 20.8W 12.6N 24.5W 13.3N 28.5W 13.9N 32.8W
LBAR 11.8N 20.8W 12.1N 24.2W 12.7N 28.0W 13.1N 32.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070814 0000 070815 0000 070816 0000 070817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 37.2W 17.5N 46.9W 17.6N 56.2W 16.3N 64.6W
BAMD 13.0N 37.2W 13.3N 44.9W 13.6N 52.3W 13.9N 58.3W
BAMM 14.3N 37.2W 14.5N 46.0W 13.9N 54.2W 13.1N 60.0W
LBAR 13.7N 36.5W 13.8N 44.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 54KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 20.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 18.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 15.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

texascanecaster1 · Posted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 8:57 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

new hwrf runs are showing a cat 3 at the end of the run.......

just wanted to bring this up as this system could eventually be an issue for south florida.