INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

alorfi · Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:57 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

I was just considering the same. Between this very strong high off the eastern seaboard and the possibility of retrograding high pressure in the Gulf, an extremely early landfall consideration would have to be along the SE coast anywhere from Miami to Cape Hatteras. Obviously a southern track over the next few days would be bad for us.

BTW, I still don't see any model projections taking this back NE. Maybe that was a typo?

bob · Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 10:00 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

As of 11 pm most computer models show td 4 going NORTH of Puerto Rico and showing a curve to the NW. If these models hold up, we should be ok here in sw fla. Will this become the dreaded upper us coast storm? Mid atlantic states north. Should they be concerned ? Still to early but watch, wait and learn cool goatee

.

bob · Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 10:15 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

alorfi

Go to lou's weather site (cc storms web page). Click on Dvovak Current Intensity Chart. Click on University of Wisconsin link and look at the projected path. Once these things get NORTH of Puerto Rico , you can see the projected path to be well north of us heading for somewhere up the eastern us coast. Very rarely will they dip back sw towards us as some models are still predicting. Odds seem to favor a trip up the east coast.
But what do I know. I'm just a wanna be weather guy

As an update, the NHC projections show td4 heading north of the central Bahamas.

Go to NHC web site and look at tropical storms force winds 5 day graph.

Someday I will learn how to to post these pages. HELP!!

alorfi · Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 10:53 pm Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

I see some NW trajectories in the models, but nothing NE. I am also very concerned about the huge high off the mid-Atlantic which would direct the cyclone more in a due west direction. I think a Miami to Hatteras area would be of greatest concern right now. Long way to go.

Nolesjeff · Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 6:11 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

Exactly. a long way to go. 5 day out models are questionable and we are talking 10, I dont see a weakness to allow a swing to the north personally, but as I said before I am new at this Smile

ccstorms · Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 6:24 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

Models will continue to flop back and forth. Still very early in the game. This is the GFS at 180 hrs.

_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

bob · Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:15 am Post subject: Re: INVEST 90L NOW TD-4

One very serious storm did go to the North of Puerto Rico, then appeared to be on it's way to to the nw. But it leveled off and shot due west instead. The storm? Hurricane Andrew.
So pay your money, sit back and enjoy the show!

bob