Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:57 am Post subject: Sluggish wave entering Gulf still to develop. Now 91L.
The wave I have been following (it seems like forever now).....I have affectionately named it sluggo.......is now consolidating with energy from the wave catching it from the NE. It is looking better this morning between Cuba and the N. tip of the Yucatan. I am still bullish this will be a named storm in the Western Gulf affecting NE Mexico and/or extreme S. TX later in the week. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:22 am Post subject: Re: Sluggish wave entering Gulf still to develop. Now 91L.
The area around the Yucatan Channel seems to be where the focal point is at the moment. The ULL and the shear will have to depart the picture before any development can take place. Things are getting interesting! _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 9:30 am Post subject: Re: Sluggish wave entering Gulf still to develop. Now 91L.
ccstorms wrote:
The area around the Yucatan Channel seems to be where the focal point is at the moment. The ULL and the shear will have to depart the picture before any development can take place. Things are getting interesting!
Absolutely Lou..... But I think that will happen when it gets over into the W. Central Gulf as it seems gnats have been flying faster than this wave I'm still curious to see if my day of subsidence occurs for you guy's today. I noticed NWS upped pops to 50%...........we shall see. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 10:12 am Post subject: Re: Sluggish wave entering Gulf still to develop. Now 91L.
This area is now Invest 91L. 25 kts, 1009 mb. Jeff, I edited the title, hope that's ok. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 10:30 am Post subject: Re: Sluggish wave entering Gulf still to develop. Now 91L.
473
WHXX01 KWBC 131410
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1410 UTC MON AUG 13 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:36 am Post subject: Re: Sluggish wave entering Gulf still to develop. Now 91L.
ccstorms wrote:
This area is now Invest 91L. 25 kts, 1009 mb. Jeff, I edited the title, hope that's ok.
Hell, Lou...............I'm just happy I wasn't chasing a ghost _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:48 am Post subject: Re: Sluggish wave entering Gulf still to develop. Now 91L.
87
NOUS42 KNHC 131530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 13 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-082
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 14/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 14/1700Z
D. 23.5N 91.0W
E. 14/1700Z TO 14/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO
A. 15/0900Z
B. AFXXX 02EEA CYCLONE
C. 15/0630Z
D. 25.0N 95.0W
E. 14/0730Z TO 14/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX AT 15/1500Z. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:51 am Post subject: Re: Sluggish wave entering Gulf still to develop. Now 91L.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR...LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 520
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW
MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNASSIANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. _________________ This post is for discussion purposes only. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for official information.
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I'm still curious to see if my day of subsidence occurs for you guy's today. I noticed NWS upped pops to 50%...........we shall see.
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