HURRICANE DEAN

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

"If he wasn't moving so quickly.............he would have been a contender (Wilma)"

It appears from the latest satellite pic that Dean is still deepening. Solid ring of deep reds around the eye. Only one recon plane is available. They were having all sorts of mechanical and data transmitting problems all day. We may not know just how strong Dean becomes before landfall. One thing is for certain....it will be Hell on earth where the core comes ashore.

_________________
No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once

MarFtMyers · Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:22 pm Post subject: Dean? Dean who....

And please keep him away from me!! I would never wish a storm like
Dean on anyone....Nasty, very nasty. Twisted Evil

ccstorms · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 4:38 am Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN

906 mb !

URNT12 KNHC 210833
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 21/08:14:00Z
B. 18 deg 41 min N
087 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2286 m
D. 114 kt
E. 140 deg 9 nm
F. 239 deg 116 kt
G. 139 deg 008 nm
H. 906 mb
I. 11 C/ 3053 m
J. 23 C/ 3044 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 1504A DEAN OB 25
MAX FL WIND 164 KT N QUAD 08:18:40Z
CONTINUOUS LIGHTING AND SEVERE TURBULENCE SOUTH EYEWALL
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

texascanecaster1 · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:51 am Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN

post moved.
_________________
Texas

bob · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 11:51 am Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN

Dean to become GIL? If Dean survives to the Pacific Ocean or regenerates over the Pacific, DEAN = GIL Exclamation

bob

Just read on Dr Masters blog at wunderground that no storm has ever survived crossing the mountains of central Mexico so looks like Dean will = it's end

texascanecaster1 · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 1:34 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN

Dean will die:

By me for i am ULL MAN!:

_________________
Texas

ccstorms · Posted: Wed Aug 22, 2007 9:05 am Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN

Dean is now just a shadow of it's former self.

URNT12 KNHC 221305 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/12:48:50Z
B. 20 deg 31 min N
096 deg 00 min W
C. NA mb 2915 m
D. NA kt
E. 0NA deg 000 nm
F. 194 deg 092 kt
G. 126 deg 086 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 7 C/ 3054 m
J. 12 C/ 3049 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. 0.31 / 4 nm
P. AF301 1704A DEAN OB 13 CCA
MAX FL WIND 98 KT N QUAD 11:25:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C, 315 / 35NM
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 97 KT NW QUAD 13:08:10 Z
SOME SPIRAL BANDING
_________________
LOU
Cape Coral.
http://members.tripod.com/weatherman911/index.html

bob · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2007 7:29 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN

The final results on Dean are in - from wunderground blog:

Dean's rampage across the Caribbean is history. Dean made its final landfall yesterday as a 100-mph Category 2 hurricane near the tourism and fishing town of Tecolutla, Mexico. A slogan one could have used throughout Dean's tour of the Caribbean is, "it could have been much worse". The storm hit halfway between the most populous cities in the region--Tampico, population 300,000, and Veracruz, population 444,000. The region Dean hit is known as Mexico's Emerald coast, and is dotted by villages, cattle ranches, and uncrowded beaches. The storm weakened rapidly as it moved inland, and passed about 75 miles north of Mexico city, dropping heavy rains along its path. The remains of Dean are expected to make it to the Pacific ocean this weekend, then get pulled northwards in to Arizona, potentially bringing extra rainfall there, but not flooding. Wunderblogger Randy Bynon has a blog with some great photos of his flight into Dean with the Hurricane Hunters yesterday.

Insured damage from Dean to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula was estimated at $400 million by one insurance company. Using the the usual rule of thumb that total damage is double the insured damage, the Yucatan suffered $800 million in damage. The total bill to Mexico from Dean will likely exceed $1 billion, when the damages from the storm's second landfall is factored in. Dean fortunately did little damage to the oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico that provide about one third of Mexico's cash.

Once again, Mexico came out of a major hurricane will no deaths reported. I am very impressed with how well Mexico's civil defense system has performed during the past three hurricanes. Mexico also had no deaths from Hurricane Emily, which hit the country twice--once as a Category 4 storm near Cozumel, then as a Category 3 hurricane south of the Texas border. Hurricane Wilma, which clobbered Cancun and the northern tip of the Yucatan for three days as a Category 4 hurricane, killed only four people. The low loss of life from these three major hurricanes is something Mexicans can be truly proud of.

Figure 1. Flooding on the island of Dominica from Hurricane Dean. Image credit: Mike Theiss.

How some of the other countries on Dean's list fared:

Belize
About 5% of the buildings in northern Belize were damaged, and there was some destruction to the papaya crop. Electricity is nearly restored, and water was never lost.

Jamaica
It could have been very, very much worse on Jamaica. Dean missed the island, bringing Category 1 and 2 hurricane conditions to just the southern portion of Jamaica. According to articles in the Jamaica Observer and Jamaica Gleaner, Jamaica is making progress in the wake of the estimated $1.5 - $3 billion in damage left by Dean--the second most expensive hurricane in Jamaican history, next to the $4 billion in damage wrought by Hurricane Gilbert. Hurricane Dean cut water to 80% of the island, but by Wednesday, 48 hours after storm, water had been restored to 45% of the island. Half of the 248 roads blocked by the storm had been cleared, by Wednesday, and another 89 roads wad been opened for one lane traffic. Cruise ships had returned to the mostly undamaged northern part of the island. All of the hotels on the island are open except one. Most of the island is still without power, but 50% of Jamaica should have power by the weekend. There is significant damage on the South Coast 69 Kv transmission line and severe damage to the power transmission infrastructure in the east and south, and it may be many weeks before power is restored to the entire island. Cell phone communication is available on 70% of the island.

Only three deaths were reported on Jamaica, which is far fewer than the 17 deaths suffered during Hurricane Ivan and the 45 deaths from Hurricane Gilbert. Better building codes and better hurricane awareness and planning are to credit for this low death toll. Jamaica has done a great job preparing for and recovering from this storm.

bob

MeteorologistTV · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2007 8:58 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN

Now an Invest over the Eastern Pacific.Lets see if Dean regenerates Cool

bob · Posted: Thu Aug 23, 2007 9:21 pm Post subject: Re: HURRICANE DEAN

If it does, it will be the 1st storm to cross the 10-12,000' mountains of central Mexico to do so. Dean actually passed just 75 miles south of Mexico City.

bob