Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 2:07 pm Post subject: Re: WATCH 20N & 55W NOW INVEST 92L
What concerns me about 92L (or 92J) is a setup like Jeanne in 04 which caused a Hurricane to lurk just of the Florida east coast for a few days. Some of the models really slow it down near Florida. We can hope it never fully gets it's act together because this could be real trouble. Another wrinkle is that the southern portion of the wave is also trying to fire up. If far enough apart, with a wave split scenario we could have two systems. Not likely but possible. Here's the latest model text run which I also don't like.
Mon Aug 20 14:49:35 EDT 2007
WHXX01 KWBC 201826
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC MON AUG 20 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Joined: Jun 14, 2006 Posts: 263 Location: Cape Coral FL
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 2:56 pm Post subject: Re: WATCH 20N & 55W NOW INVEST 92L
alorfi wrote:
If this remained intact upon emerging in the Gulf, do you project significant redevelopment where it would make another landfall along the Texas or Louisiana coast as a much more dangerous storm? Aside from that unfortunate scenario, we REALLY need your call to verify because our time to refill these reservoirs is getting limited. El Sluggo Deux would be very welcome, in my opinion.
Although I have plans for Lake Placid this weekend, I do concur that we desperately need some massive amounts of rain for resevoirs. _________________ GO NOLES
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