Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 4:36 am Post subject: Re: WATCH 20N & 55W NOW INVEST 92L
SW46TER wrote:
By the way, my view of this thing developing and lurking east of Florida in the Bahamas by next weekend remains. The only twist is that since the system is further North, there is a chance that a trough passing thru the mid-atlantic could pick the system up and bring it up the East Coast. Not likely a strong trough so more than likely the connection will miss, high pressure will build back to the North and the system will start a westward movement again. I know it seems like a lot of maybe, could, shoulds etc. but I'm new to this tropical thing (caused by my 2 yr. stay in the Cape).........and I don't have the luxury of bouncing my thoughts off Stacy Stewart....(yes Lou, I'm envious.. )
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 6:31 am Post subject: Re: WATCH 20N & 55W NOW INVEST 92L
C'mon Lou, we know you have a sat-com link with him. Hell, you get the recon info on the board 3 min. after it was taken _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:07 am Post subject: Re: WATCH 20N & 55W NOW INVEST 92L
WHXX01 KWBC 201221
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1221 UTC MON AUG 20 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
Joined: Jun 23, 2007 Posts: 125 Location: Se tx near houtson
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:39 am Post subject: Re: WATCH 20N & 55W NOW INVEST 92L
Looks like dean is a cat 5 now. Also nhc thinks blob will develop and be ethier east coast storm or into the florida straights. While models say east coast due to the ridge that pushed deany beany west i am inclined to think a more westerly track is likely. _________________ Texas
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 11:41 am Post subject: Re: WATCH 20N & 55W NOW INVEST 92L
Like el sluggo (Erin), this system too is waiting to merge with a smaller wave to it's South. Then like Erin, they will combine forces and it's game on......Friday still seems to be the day that problems begin for Florida. I don't anticipating this system to be in the Indy 500 like Dean (which is why it wound up so far South) . I think it is either semi stalled or crawling over the Northern Bahamas or along Florida's East Coast friday. Again, this is not my expertise so it very well could be sitting over Lake O or Sarasota Friday. But it looks to me like it will eventually cross the peninsula as Felix and head into the Gulf. It is very hard to judge the intensity as a crawling storm over the Bahamas would be a much different animal than a storm crawling from Melbourne to Sarasota. So I am not ready to guess an intensity. Right now, my gut says 70% tropical storm, 29% Hurricane, 1% I made much a do out of nothing with a harmless tropical wave. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
Joined: Dec 28, 2006 Posts: 346 Location: Cape Coral, FL
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 12:10 pm Post subject: Re: WATCH 20N & 55W NOW INVEST 92L
If this remained intact upon emerging in the Gulf, do you project significant redevelopment where it would make another landfall along the Texas or Louisiana coast as a much more dangerous storm? Aside from that unfortunate scenario, we REALLY need your call to verify because our time to refill these reservoirs is getting limited. El Sluggo Deux would be very welcome, in my opinion.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 12:35 pm Post subject: Re: WATCH 20N & 55W NOW INVEST 92L
alorfi wrote:
If this remained intact upon emerging in the Gulf, do you project significant redevelopment where it would make another landfall along the Texas or Louisiana coast as a much more dangerous storm? Aside from that unfortunate scenario, we REALLY need your call to verify because our time to refill these reservoirs is getting limited. El Sluggo Deux would be very welcome, in my opinion.
With the extreme drought conditions over the interior SE, I don't see the heat ridge breaking down for at least the next 10-14 days. So yes, I think there will be a good chance for redevelopment as it moves towards the upper TX coast. Now if it is moving 2mph across Florida it may take longer to get it's act back together in the Gulf. Basically,in that scenario, the stronger the system is impacting Florida, the more disrupted it would be, where as a weaker Erin type storm could better maintain itself over Florida. That would be the better scenario for Florida........rain vs wind/surge, but Tx/ Western LA might have a bigger problem. And naturally vice versa. But right now, I honestly don't know how it will pan out (not that I ever really do ) I am pretty confident it will affect Florida though. _________________ No...I am not a tropical forecaster....But I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once
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