Not yet given up on 92L

alorfi · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 3:54 pm Post subject: Not yet given up on 92L

Conditions at the upper levels are so favorable for El Sluggo Deux (Invest 92L) that I think we may be a bit premature in retiring him just yet. I know there is so little convection at the moment, but with conditions this favorable (from what I see), I think it still merits some attention, especially if it does cross the peninsula and emerges in the Gulf. Thoughts from the experts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

Nolesjeff · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: Not yet given up on 92L

No expert here, but that upper level low to the south of it seems to be wreaking havoc. El Sluggo Deux(love that name) will have to be a fighter. It appears that the sprinklers will be going on again. Of course on my legal day.
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alorfi · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 4:31 pm Post subject: Re: Not yet given up on 92L

You're absolutely right. That upper low seems to be sucking it right up. I guess my earlier thoughts on favorable upper-level conditions couldn't have been more wrong. Now there appears to be quite a bit of dry air to the north to seal the deal. Even the Navy has removed 92L now.

chris · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 5:10 pm Post subject: Re: Not yet given up on 92L

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SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

While I am not as bullish on development of 92L before Florida, I still think this is a Gulf problem if it slows down a bit. It now appears to be sitting just off Cape Coral on Friday instead of crawling towards the East Coast from the Bahamas. This thing is not going to get any help initially but it could still be a decent rainmaker for Florida and TX/LA is certainly not out of the woods yet for a named storm (IMHO) Big high over the North Atlantic.............look out below....Oh and by the way, judging by the unusually quick pace these latest storms/ waves have been moving, the screaming easterlies are definitely telling me a decent La Nina is developing...........
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Nolesjeff · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 5:51 pm Post subject: Re: Not yet given up on 92L

And remind me please, la nina inhibits tropical formation?
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bob · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 6:04 pm Post subject: Re: Not yet given up on 92L

Jeffnoles

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La nina increases the atlantic tropical storm activity.

Unlike an El Nino which produce westerly winds, a La Nina produces easterly winds at upper levels and westerly winds at lower levels across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and tropical Atlantic. There tends to be a greater than normal number of Atlantic hurricanes during La Nina events because of this expanded area of low vertical wind shear.

During a La Nina more hurricanes form in the deep tropics form Africa easterly waves. These storms are likely to become major hurricanes threatening the east coast of the U.S. and Caribbean Islands

Bob

SW46TER · Senior Member Joined: Jul 11, 2005 Posts: 1202

You Go Bob.......... popcorn

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alorfi · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 6:32 pm Post subject: Re: Not yet given up on 92L

How does La Nina affect the winters down here? Any chance of it helping us get ONE month of normal rainfall for a change?

bob · Posted: Tue Aug 21, 2007 8:13 pm Post subject: Re: Not yet given up on 92L

Generally, a la nina in winter means colder and stormier conditions across the north central and north eastern states. For the southern states , it's usually warmer and drier. Don't give up on the rain for this winter. The effect of the current la nina could weaken between now and then.

bob